Could The Draft Come Back?

"Opinion"

09/22/2006

Paul Munnis

The U.S. Army is spread thin for new recruit soldiers. This is putting terrific pressure on Army National Guard and Army Reservists and their families.

A lot of solutions have been examined which include paying bigger signing bonuses, extending tours, increasing rotational frequency, cutting rest intervals, etc. All are unsatisfactory and they impact military moral in a negative manner. The Army needs bright, young, healthy, enthusiastic and well educated people to staff its jobs.

The obvious solution is re-instituting the selective service draft. All of the needed laws are on the books all it takes is an Executive Order.

Once a person turns 18 in the U.S. they are automatically registered for the draft. Uncle Sam knows who they are and where they are.

The military doesn’t want to draft 18 and 19 year olds. An all voluntary Army is preferable to the military for lots of reasons including the fact that a two year draft adds a lot to the Administrative burdens and that itself demands more people. Already their equipment is run down and shabby and needs to be replaced. The Army is appealing to Congress right now for more funds. If a draft came back, the new troops would need to be trained, equipped, and supported, and that woud drive military budget costs even higher. A guy carrying a rifle needs a lot of support including financial, logistical, supplies, lodging, and then he gets married and so he needs dependent support.

The Bush administration doesn’t want to re-institute the draft for polls and studies show it to be political suicide. The GOP simply must maintain a façade that this is a zero cost war for the average American. However that could soon end.

Pragmatic facts remain. The Army needs to fill more boots. Staying the Course demands more people.

In 2004 and 2005 the Pentagon and the Bush Administration were on the verge of reinstituting the draft but then they broke it off. Bush gave one of his ‘read-my-lips’ speeches assuring that he would not reinstitute the draft and yet he has proven that he can be managed on the subject. Now that he is a Lame Duck president the political costs are not so high to him either. Congress can blame it on Bush.

Of course Bush would not reinstate the draft before the mid-term elections but a surprise could await the public right afterwards. There is no action required by Congress but Bush would like to push the blame onto a Democratic Congress so he would likely ask for a vote of support. 

Americans believe the Selective Service will never again rear its ugly head yet the Bush administration’s motives for reinstating the draft are clear (especially if the Administration unilaterally attacks a third and perhaps a fourth country).

“Twenty-one of the US Army’s 33 regular combat brigades are now on active duty in the ‘hot’ zones of Iraq, Afghanistan, South Korea, and the Balkans. That’s 63 percent of the Army’s fighting force. This is a huge overextension. History has proven that long-term military operations can only be sustained if you have twice as many soldiers waiting in the pipeline as are stationed out in the field. By that rule of thumb, the regular military is now 125,000 soldiers short.”

And “draft dodging” would not be as easy as it was during the Vietnam Conflict, since attending college, being female, or fleeing to Canada could not be used as shelters this time around. Stutz writes, “underclassmen would only be able to postpone service until the end of their current semester. Seniors would have until the end of the academic year.”

Meanwhile, shortly after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, “Canada and the U.S. signed a ‘Smart Border Declaration,’ which could be used to keep would-be draft dodgers in [the United States].” This lead one reporter to ask: “Will we see American youth headed for Mexico to avoid the draft.”

Would Gays and Lesbians be excluded? Not likely, first many seeking a deferement would claim the status. Second, it would impact the present base and rob the Army of skillled and already trained people. Thus it would open Pandora’s Box.

There is presently a lot of pressure from Iran and North Korea and that could add to Army commitments. All of this saber-rattling comes at a high price. That price is America’s youth.

There is another option - better use of U.S. Diplomacy to win the hearts and minds of people around the world.

So far propaganda efforts have substituted for diplomacy but it’s now time for real diplomacy – way past that time actually. However that is not the strong suit of the GOP. The Bush Administration is big on bullying but short on diplomacy. It’s two years until an election for the White House can be held and that means two years before a real diplomatic service can be brought back by Democrats. Condoleeza Rice is now Bush’s main hope for diplomacy and she seems to be a light weight diplomat. That leaves Bush up the creek and exposes 18 and 19 year olds to mandatory military duty.

I guess that Democrats are consisered soft on security because they would rather use diplomacy to avoid war while the GOP prefers to threaten and to make war. Yet Democrats sleep good at night knowing that we are not responsible for the many deaths of our American youth. A lot of Moderate Republicans have signed on as Democrats for the very same reasons.

If I were a betting man I’d bet on the draft returning in 2007 just after the State of the Union address is delivered.