Survey bodes ill for some Minnesota politicos

"Campaign Races"

12/08/2005

The latest St. Cloud State University Survey points to deep dissatisfaction with incumbents as well as signs of Republican vulnerability.

Dane Smith,
Star Tribune
Last update: December 7, 2005 at 9:55 PM

Worrisome signs for incumbents and particularly for Republicans were sprinkled throughout a statewide annual opinion poll released Wednesday by St. Cloud State University.

As a crucial election year approaches, more Minnesotans (46 percent) say the state is headed in the right direction than say it’s on the wrong track (39 percent). But almost 70 percent rated the Legislature’s performance as “poor” or “only fair.” That’s a 20 percentage-point jump in the thumbs-down verdict for the Legislature since 1999.

Even when assessing their own state representatives and state senators, a slightly larger percentage described their legislators as “only fair” or “poor” rather than “excellent” or “pretty good.” The last three sessions under divided partisan control have been marked by unusually bitter rancor and prolonged deadlocks.

GOP looks vulnerable

Warning indicators for Republicans surfaced elsewhere in the poll of 567 adult Minnesotans, which was conducted Nov. 6-21.

When asked to name the state’s biggest problem, the most frequent response was “education funding” (18 percent) followed by “taxes” (12 percent). It may be more than a coincidence that DFLers have been aggressively accusing Republicans of short-changing public schools and raising property taxes, which GOP leaders vigorously deny.

When asked which party would best be able to deal with the problem that concerns them most, almost 40 percent picked “Democrats” and only about a fourth chose Republicans.

Approval ratings have slumped for both Gov. Tim Pawlenty and President George Bush.

The percentage giving Pawlenty “poor” or “only fair” marks rose to 50 percent from 41 percent in 2003. When asked whether they would vote for Pawlenty, 39 percent said yes and 42 percent said no.

Close association with Bush might not be too helpful. Bush finished dead last among elected officials and candidates on a “feeling thermometer” and those rating his job performance “excellent” or “pretty good” dropped to 33 percent.

On the poll’s distinctive thermometer reading, a perennial feature, respondents are asked to think about a thermometer and gauge their “feelings” about elected officials or candidates by citing a temperature between 0 and 100 degrees, with 100 being most positive.

Bush has dropped steadily on the thermometer since his first year in office, from a temperature of 70 in 2001 down to 44 this year. Pawlenty has bounced around between 50 and a high of 58 last year, but fell to 53 this year.

Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar, a DFL candidate for the U.S. Senate, and First Lady Laura Bush got the highest ratings.

U.S. Rep. Mark Kennedy, the presumptive Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2006, got the second-lowest rating, 47.

Bush plans to arrive in Minnesota Friday for a Kennedy fundraiser.

Noting that the poll showed that disapproval of the DFL-controlled Senate was somewhat stronger than for either Pawlenty or the Republican House, state Republican Party Chairman Ron Carey said he’s not at all panicked by the findings.

“It’s 11 months to go. In 1993, the polls showed Democrats leading for House races nationally and we had the biggest Republican year ever,” Carey said.

Bush’s aggressive counter-attacks lately and his emphasis on “good things happening in Iraq and the economy” has begun to work and his poll numbers nationally have begun to rise again, Carey contended.

DFL Party executive director Andrew O’Leary said the poll was indisputably “good news for Democrats. People trust us more with their problems, the governor has a very low reelect number and the president, who has the worst numbers of all, will be on the same stage with Pawlenty and their Senate candidate on Friday.”

Stephen Frank, political science professor and one of three faculty directors of the poll, said Bush’s national troubles are definitely having an impact in Minnesota.

“Usually, national politics doesn’t affect us all too much, but there are times when it does have an effect,” he said.

Other findings

Among other miscellaneous results in the St. Cloud State survey:

• Sentiment for regulating cell-phone use while driving is strong. About 85 percent of respondents favor either making cell-phone use illegal or restricting it to “hands-free” cell-phone headsets.

• Attitudes on abortion have changed little from past years, Frank said. About 60 percent of the respondents favor some sort of restrictions on abortion, but at the same time about 60 percent say they oppose completely overturning the Roe vs. Wade decision that expanded abortion rights.

• Most Minnesotans, 57 percent, continue to favor the death penalty for murder.

• More than 60 percent favor adopting initiative, referendum and recall in Minnesota, which would give voters direct ballot access in adopting laws, abolishing laws or removing elected officials from office.