A look at states likely to be the most competitive on Nov. 4

"Party News"

06/05/2008

(AP) -- An Associated Press analysis of the 50 states and the percentage-point margins of victory in the 2004 race between George W. Bush and John Kerry. Electoral votes are in parentheses.


BATTLEGROUNDS:

_Colorado (9): Bush by 5. Population growth and Hispanic voters give Democrats hope.

_Florida (27): Bush by 5. Always a hard-fought state given its large cache of votes.

_Iowa (7): Bush by 1. High Democratic priority.

_Michigan (17): Kerry by 3. McCain hopes Reagan Democrats and independents help despite a dreadful economy.

_Minnesota (10): Kerry by 3. One of McCain's top targets with a Republican governor.

_Missouri (11): Bush by 7. A perennial competitive state.

_Nevada (5): Bush by 2. Another Western state Democrats aim to pick up.

_New Hampshire (4): Kerry by 1. McCain is beloved; the state made him in 2000 and saved him in 2008.

_New Mexico (5): Bush by 1. Democrats hope Hispanics and new residents help here too.

_Ohio (20): Bush by 2. Recent GOP statewide defeats may make this bellwether poised for a switch.

_Oregon (7): Kerry by 4. McCain's independent streak and environmental focus could be appealing here.

_Pennsylvania (21): Kerry by 3. Republicans see a chance, given McCain's broad appeal.

_Virginia (13): Bush by 9. Democrats see opportunity with Obama.

_Wisconsin (10): Kerry by 1. Another Great Lakes state McCain is targeting.

WILDCARDS:

_California (55): Kerry by 10. McCain talks big, but a Republican hasn't won it since 1988.

_Delaware (3): Kerry by 7. Among coastal states McCain may have an outside shot at if the tide turns toward the GOP.

_Georgia (15): Bush by 17. Democrats hope Obama's draw among blacks makes this competitive.

_Louisiana (9): Bush by 15. Democrats claim blacks would help Obama here.

_Maine (4): Kerry by 9. McCain's fight against climate change and rebel reputation give him hope.

_Mississippi (6): Bush by 19. Another state where Democrats say Obama could benefit from blacks.

_Montana (3): Bush by 20. The state last voted Democratic in 1992 but now has a Democratic governor.

_New Jersey (15): Kerry by 7. McCain's broad appeal makes this attractive to Republicans.

_North Carolina (15) Bush by 12. Democrats see an opportunity with Obama.

_Washington (11): Kerry by 7. Another where McCain's moderate image could help.

LIKELY REPUBLICAN:

_Alabama (9): Bush by 25.

_Alaska (3): Bush by 25.

_Arizona (10): Bush by 11.

_Arkansas (6): Bush by 9.

_Idaho (4): Bush by 38.

_Indiana (11): Bush by 21.

_Kansas (6): Bush by 25.

_Kentucky (8): Bush by 20.

_Nebraska (5): Bush by 33.

_North Dakota (3): Bush by 28.

_Oklahoma (7): Bush by 32.

_South Carolina (8): Bush by 17.

_South Dakota (3): Bush by 22.

_Tennessee (11): Bush by 14.

_Texas (34): Bush by 23.

_Utah (5): Bush by 46.

_West Virginia (5) Bush by 13.

_Wyoming (3): Bush by 40.

LIKELY DEMOCRATIC:

_Connecticut (7): Kerry by 10.

_District of Columbia (3): Kerry by 80.

_Hawaii (5): Kerry by 9.

_Illinois (21): Kerry by 11.

_Maryland (10): Kerry by 13.

_Massachuttsetts (12): Kerry by 25.

_New York (31): Kerry by 18.

_Rhode Island (4): Kerry by 20.

_Vermont (3): Kerry by 20.