Primary night yields good news for Obama, Dems

"Political News"

08/11/2010

By: John F. Harris
POLITICO
August 11, 2010 04:34 AM EDT


President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party, who have been starved for good news through much of 2010, finally received a generous helping Tuesday night.

Republicans, meanwhile, were left with several new reasons to wonder whether all the favorable national trends showing up in polls are enough to overcome local candidates who are inspiring little confidence about their readiness for the general election twelve weeks from now.

In each of the four states that held primaries Tuesday, the GOP either nominated or gave an overnight lead to candidates tarnished by scandal, gaffes or some other significant vulnerability.

The headline victory belonged to Sen. Michael Bennet, the Colorado Democrat who, with extensive help from Obama and the party establishment in Washington, galloped to a surprisingly wide nine-point victory over challenger Andrew Romanoff. A former House speaker, Romanoff once looked well-positioned poised to rally liberal discontent and give the White House a very visible black eye.

But the party establishment showed it still has some fight even in an anti-establishment year. And Democrats, in an assessment that many independent analysts tend to agree with, said the most favorable news for them may have come from the results on the Republican side.

The GOP nominee will be Ken Buck, a county prosecutor and insurgent conservative who Democrats will try to paint as a Colorado version of Sharron Angle—the Nevada Republican whose rhetorical stubbed toes and strident ideological profile have weakened GOP prospects there.

The Colorado results, combined with Tuesday returns in Connecticut, Georgia, and Minnesota and other recent primaries, suggest it may be time to scrutinize a treasured 2010 storyline—about an angry electorate, determined to punish insiders and professional pols of all stripes, rushing to embrace ideological insurgents.

It’s not that this narrative is all wrong. But it appears to be significantly more true among Republicans than Democrats.

Buck, for instance, was favored by some tea party activists but opposed by much of the state and national party leadership. Buck’s caught-on-tape remark that he ought to be elected because he didn’t wear high heels wasn’t enough for Lt. Gov Jane Norton to close the gap in their primary, but it will certainly be used against the Republican nominee in the general election.

Republicans also didn’t do themselves any favors in Colorado’s gubernatorial contest by narrowly nominating Dan Maes. GOP leaders had hoped former Rep. Scott McInnis, who has become embroiled in a plagiarism scandal, would win the nomination and then agree to drop out – giving the party a fresh chance to tap a new nominee who would give them a better chance to take on former Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper.

But Maes is unlikely to quit and his recent suggestion that a Denver bicycle-sharing program may "threaten our personal freedoms" and lead to greater U.N. influence has only amplified Republican fears about the contest.

In Georgia, a split Republican Party has left former Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes smiling. Barnes’ attempt at a political comeback was lifted when the GOP emerged from their gubernatorial run-off almost evenly divided between Secretary of State Karen Handel and Rep. Nathan Deal. Deal appeared to have edged Handel by less than 3,000 votes but Georgia law allows for a recount for any margin under one percent.

The notion of a continuing Republican nomination battle – effectively a third contest following the primary and run-off – will only make it more difficult for the GOP to regroup and take on Barnes, who won without a run-off in July. And if Deal is ultimately the nominee, Democrats will surely hammer him over a congressional ethics investigation and apparent federal grand jury probe into a business arrangement the former congressman had with an obscure state program.

“This is the best possible outcome for Democrats,” crowed DGA executive director Nathan Daschle. “Even after a vicious run-off, Georgia Republicans couldn’t decide between two bad options: a corrupt Congressman or a Capitol insider.”

In Connecticut, Republicans nominated a decidedly untested candidate to compete for the Senate seat held by the retiring Sen. Christopher Dodd. Linda McMahon, the self-funding former head of the WWE, will face an onslaught of attacks about her wrestling company and considerable skepticism from one of the most affluent and educated electorates in America.

Her opponent, Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, has his own vulnerabilities following reports that he misrepresented his Vietnam service but the Democrat is enjoying double-digit leads in polls even after months of McMahon advertisements.

"Connecticut Republicans today nominated a corporate CEO of WWE, who under her watch violence was peddled to kids, steroid abuse was rampant, yet she made millions," said DSCC Chairman Robert Menendez of New Jersey (D-N.J.), in a statement Tuesday evening.

In the Connecticut governor’s race, national Democrats were happy that former Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy defeated Greenwich millionaire Ned Lamont, best known for his defeat of Sen. Joe Lieberman in the 2006 Democratic Senate primary.

Meanwhile, Republicans nominated Tom Foley, a self-funding businessman and former Ambassador to Ireland under George W. Bush who has been dogged by stories about a messy divorce, allegations that he exaggerated his role in helping rebuild Iraq during time there as a civilian appointee and attacks on his involvement in companies that laid off workers.

In Minnesota, Democratic primary voters narrowly rejected the party endorsee, House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, in favor of former U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton. After an uneven Senate performance that ended with his voluntary retirement after one term, Dayton is not exactly a juggernaut. But he still starts with a leg up against Republican state Rep. Tom Emmer, whose campaign is off to a rocky start. The Republican recently shuffled his campaign leadership and offended restaurant servers and other laborers by suggesting that the minimum wage be altered to take into account customer tips.

But it is the Colorado results that will carry the loudest echo. This was a state Obama won in 2008—in what was taken as a sign of new Democratic strength in the mountain west. But following that victory, the party seemed to lose momentum. Embattled Gov. Bill Ritter forgoing a campaign for a second term and Bennet—a former Denver schools superintendent who was appointed to the job after Obama made incumbent Ken Salazar as Interior secretary—was facing both cloudy prospects in both the primary and general election.

Things look brighter now, thanks to the GOP’s gubernatorial woes and Bennet’s victory—a result that especially pleased the Obama White House because it also meant Romanoff’s comeuppance.

Romanoff not only rebuffed the attempts of top Obama aides to prevent him from running, he released private emails from Deputy White House Chief of Staff Jim Messina regarding a conversation the two had about potential administration jobs that would have lured him away from the race.

Obama, having stumped for a string of successive losing Democratic candidates and unable to get his preferred candidate in other races, needed a victory badly and went all out for Bennet. Obama raised money for the senator appeared in a mail piece and TV ad for him and cut a robo-call. Other cabinet officials also helped the incumbent with fundraising and voter contact. And the White House even got comedian George Lopez, an Obama supporter, to record a robo-call aimed at Colorado’s Hispanic community.

The Bennet win was also important to Obama for another reason – Romanoff had the support for Bill Clinton and Obama aides were dreading the prospect of having to hear about how the last Democratic president had more muscle with the party base than the one currently in the Oval Office.

“This has been a tough year for Democrats, but they got some good news in all four primary states,” said University of Virginia professor Larry Sabato. “Arguably, they chose well and strengthened themselves in the key contests, while Republicans often picked the weaker candidate for November. One good primary night does not an election make, and the GOP is still going to claim the lion’s share of victories this fall. But thirsty Democrats are grateful for these four sips of water.”

A prominent Republican, former congressman and MSNBC anchor Joe Scarborough, agreed. "These rolling elections have yielded results that should give the GOP reason to pause. A majority is not guaranteed," Scarborough said on air Tuesday night.

The results are also a reminder that the torrent of coverage about 2010 being a grim-reaper year for incumbents everywhere doesn’t entirely jibe with reality. Just like earlier this cycle with Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln, who survived a fierce intraparty challenge, Bennet showed that a determined candidate with influential friends can swim against the year’s hostile political currents, though both Democrats still face major general election hurdles.

Democrats think these currents, and the most vicious intraparty fratricide, are seen most vividly in the GOP, thanks to the rise of newly-engaged grassroots conservatives.

"It's more a tea party thing than it is with Democrats," said Stratton.

Of the Democratic incumbents that have lost, all could be chalked up to unique factors that aren't totally related to this year's political environment: Sen. Arlen Specter (Switched parties), Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (hurt by the arrest of her son, the former mayor), and Rep. Alan Mollohan (faced lingering ethics questions and was late to recognize his electoral jeopardy).

A number of Republican incumbents this year have been swamped by what appears to be a broader anti-establishment wave in the GOP, combined with conservative attacks on their ideological flanks. The ranks of Republican losers include veteran Utah Sen. Robert Bennett, party-switching Rep. Parker Griffith in Alabama, Rep. Bob Inglis in South Carolina, and Nevada Gov. Jim Gibbons. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell took a pie to the face when Kentucky voters rejected his preferred choice and nominated conservative maverick Rand Paul in the race to replace retiring Sen. Jim Bunning.

But, as Sabato notes, for all this year’s turbulence, 98.5% of House and Senate incumbents seeking another term have been re-nominated.

"I think what is remarkable is that, despite the Tea Party and a bad economy, the vast majority of incumbents are having little trouble winning," Sabato said.