TimberJay Editorial: Emmer’s dubious claims

"What Others Say"

08/28/2010

Candidate has resorted to more than exaggeration on the campaign trail


TimberJay
Editorial
Published: August 27, 2010


We all know that candidates for office sometimes shade the truth, or tell only part of the story on the campaign trail. That’s one reason that most voters are rightfully skeptical of most political claims.

But there’s a difference between massaging the facts, and bludgeoning them. And, unfortunately, we’ve seen too much of the latter already from Tom Emmer, the Republican nominee for governor. It’s all adding up to a credibility gap for the Tea Party-inspired candidate.

Mr. Emmer has already drawn criticism more than once since winning his party’s nomination in April for comments that don’t seem to jive with the facts. When he ran into trouble over his suggestion that restaurant owners should be able to pay tipped workers as little as $2.13 an hour, he blamed the flap on a “liberal media” that was out to get him and tried to deny his original suggestion, which was witnessed by multiple media sources and members of the public. It’s one thing to put forward controversial proposals. But to blame the media when the firestorm erupts is just cowardly.

Unfortunately, it gets worse. During Tuesday’s debate between the three major party gubernatorial candidates, Mr. Emmer said that state government in Minnesota is slated to receive a seven percent increase in revenue in the next biennium, while state spending is slated to rise by 17 percent. He suggested that most Minnesota families could live with a seven percent raise in these tough economic times.

It makes a compelling sound bite, and Emmer apparently thought so, too, because he used it more than once. It was similar to another recent claim by Emmer, that state spending in Minnesota “has almost doubled in the past decade.”

Both claims are part of Emmer’s game plan to blame the state’s budget mess on out-of-control spending.

But the facts don’t support Emmer’s claims. And you don’t need to take our word for it. Minnesota Management and Budget, the state agency that tracks the state’s budget has revenue and spending data going back 50 years, so it’s easy to check Emmer’s math. In the 2000-01 biennium, the state spent $24.2 billion in its general fund. A decade later, in the 2010-11 biennium, the state is slated to spend $31.1 billion. That’s a 28.5 percent increase over a decade, or an average of 2.38 percent per year. By the time you add the effects of inflation and population growth, the state’s spending has effectively declined. That doesn’t qualify as a near-doubling, even by the admittedly loose standards of political speech.

While the state saw larger spending increases in some of its other funds, the vast majority of spending increases were the result of federal grants, like transportation funding, which account for roughly 38 percent of “state spending.” While Emmer has said he wants to slow the inflow of federal funds to Minnesota, we doubt many voters are likely to agree with his sentiment. Minnesotans will still be paying federal taxes regardless. We might as well see some of the benefits.

As for his claims about state revenues and spending in the upcoming biennium, it’s mere guesswork on his part. The state revenue forecast projects that revenues will rise next year, but that’s based on significant economic recovery, which is looking less and less likely. If the current revenue forecast falls short, the state may not see any revenue increase at all. In fact, the state will almost certainly have less revenue to work with because federal stimulus funds, which helped buttress the current state budget, won’t be flowing as freely next year.

As for state spending, Emmer’s claim relies again on half-truth He’s right that under existing law, the state would see a sizable jump in spending in the next biennium, but it’s a phantom increase (and Emmer knows it) reflecting the effects of accounting shifts and other short-term budget fixes implemented when Gov. Pawlenty and the Legislature approved the current state budget.

The current budget law, for example, calls for repaying the $1.8 billion school funding shift in the next biennium— yet it’s unlikely there’s a single legislator who still believes that’s going to happen. And current law assumes that all of the unallotments that Gov. Pawlenty instituted this year, with the approval of the Legislature, will be restored in the next biennium. We all know that’s not going to happen either.

The bottom line is that Tom Emmer has no idea at this point how much additional revenue, if any, the state is likely to see next year. And he has no idea how much the state is likely to spend. But in both cases, it’s a near guarantee that it will be significantly less than Mr. Emmer is claiming out on the campaign trail.

We all realize that politicians will stretch the truth from time to time. But Mr. Emmer has stretched it to the breaking point on more than one occasion. Minnesotans would be wise to take note.