An Administration Going Down The Drain

02/15/2007

Paul Munnis


What will happen when the politics of division break the political spectrum into a lopsided chunk instead of a 50-50 split and that break is not along strict Party lines? That is what is happening in Congress as politicians from both Parties are confronted in a vote of conscience over continuing the Iraqi War. The biggest chunk of Congress is opposing the continuation of further involvement in Iraq. Karl Rove never planned for this event.

We expect that the outcome will condemn the Bush plan for a Troop Surge and be interpreted as a vote of “No Confidence” against Mr. Bush by the nation and then leave the GOP with a major problem – what to do with Mr. Bush.

The GOP will have to oust him before they can start Party building in hopes of doing something with the 2008 election. As they ditch Mr. Bush then his supporters like John McCain and Rudy Giuliani will both crash. Pretty slim picking will then be left for the GOP for presidential candidates for 2008. This is likely what is holding Rudy Giuliani back from announcing his candidacy. For the GOP the quandary will be who will succeed Bush / Chaney. If a cogent answer cannot be found then Nancy Pelosi could become the first female president of the United States. Whoever the GOP chooses will likely be their 2008 GOP candidate and any sort of primaries would be anti-climatic. The new person will run from the White House for re-election having all of the trappings of the White House at his disposal for his campaign.

Some GOP politicians are saying the 2008 race is already lost and that saving seats in Congress is the key to political survival. That is leaving many members of Congress ready to defect from the GOP neo-con grip and to vote against Mr. Bush and the GOP establishment in order to have credibility with the electorate in 2008.

That in turn should cause the neo-cons to crash as a political force and to become nearly extinct. At least that’s one theory.

Bush of course will make every effort to spin the latest troop surge in Baghdad as a definitive win for his Administration – sort of another carrier appearance to proclaim his victory in Iraq. About that time the GOP leadership will need to show him the exit door as the American public starts to openly jeer and demand the Bush / Chaney removal from office.

We have been listening to MPR and the speeches made by members of Congress from both Parties and the overwhelming majority is against further adventures in Iraq.

In the meantime Mr. Bush is acting like a Texas politician trying hard not to let people see him sweat. His press conference today was a pretty brave appearance and the press was fair with him. His next news conference may be just a brief announcement of his departure.

Not many will be sad to see him go.