Before leaving, 5 questions must be answered

07/29/2007

By Bill Marsh,
New York Times
July 28, 2007


Getting out of a war requires as much planning as getting into one. Last week, Defense Secretary Robert Gates gave the strongest indication yet that the Bush administration is thinking in detail about an eventual withdrawal. In a letter to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Gates wrote: "You may rest assured that such planning is indeed taking place with my active involvement."

Here are five questions that any administration -- this one or its successor -- will have to answer as part of an exit from Iraq.


1. HOW FAST CAN THE TROOPS LEAVE?

Large numbers of U.S. soldiers have left a modern war zone, but never so many from a still-hostile region. Analysts agree that most would be airlifted, a far safer path than Iraqi roads. (But many more soldiers would be needed to protect convoys of equipment that can only travel on the ground.) "If you wanted to get all the troops out of Iraq, it's just a question of how many airliners the Department of Defense can rent," said Max Boot, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. "In a pell-mell escape, it could probably be done in a matter of months, without taking into account any of the equipment."

2. CAN DEPARTING TROOPS BE PROTECTED?

Troops concentrated in convoys that are transporting huge quantities of supplies out of Iraq make tempting targets. In the south, British forces have been attacked by militants as they pull back. "We're probably going to get stuck fighting our way out," said Stephen Biddle, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Biddle gives the current increase in troop levels a limited chance of successfully stabilizing the country, but it will take perhaps two years, with more casualties in the meantime. Hence, the calculation: Withdraw with casualties now, or risk a better exit in a few years?

3. WHO STAYS BEHIND?

There are up to 100,000 Iraqi contractors, perhaps more, working for the United States. After a pullout, many of them could be at risk from reprisals from anti-American forces. "Do you move out Iraqis who have been working for us? How do you choose them?" said Anthony Cordesman, a military analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "The more ruthless you are about it, the quicker you can get out." So far, few Iraqis -- either contractors or refugees -- have been allowed to immigrate to the United States. According to a bipartisan group of senators seeking special status for Iraqi refugees, only 63 have been admitted this year.

4. WHAT TO TAKE? WHAT TO LEAVE?

After more than four years of buildup, the U.S. footprint in Iraq is enormous. There are more than 75 major bases. Some have their own retail stores, stocking everything from magazines to large-screen televisions. There are groceries, fitness clubs and fast-food outlets, in addition to the usual military infrastructure. Then there are hundreds of smaller sites for storage, ammunition and fuel. The time required to salvage these multibillion-dollar installations and their contents could stretch the patience of Americans who want to see the war end soon.

But a quick exit has its own costs. "The faster you move out, the more you have to leave behind or destroy," Cordesman said. "There's no ideal." With missiles costing $100,000 or more apiece and armored Humvees about $380,000, the value of materiel demands a longer, more complete withdrawal, he said.

5. HOW LONG TO REPAIR AND SHIP VITAL GEAR?

At the end of their duty, sophisticated combat aircraft are not simply loaded on to ships bound for the United States. They must be thoroughly washed of sand and contaminants until sterile, then shrink-wrapped to protect them from sea air. "Everything has to be cleaned and pass an agricultural inspection," said William G. Pagonis, a retired three-star Army general who directed logistics in the Persian Gulf War. "It's not an easy task."