Breast cancer rate may have leveled off

09/07/2006

New federal data mark first sign that number of cases has stopped rising

By ROB STEIN
Washington Post
September 7, 2006

WASHINGTON — The decades-long rise in the rate of new breast cancer cases in American women appears to have leveled off, indicating that the nation may have reached a long-sought turning point in the battle against the feared malignancy.

After climbing steadily since 1980, the breast cancer rate stopped rising in 2001 and may have started to fall in 2003, according to the latest federal data.

While it will take more years before it becomes clear whether the change marks the start of a lasting trend, the statistics appear to indicate a tantalizing shift, experts said.

“I think we’re finally beginning to see a change — that it’s leveling off — and we may even be seeing the start of a decline,” said Brenda Edwards of the National Cancer Institute, who led a team that reported the change in an annual report on cancer released Wednesday. “We have to be cautious. But I think it’s real.”

The new report did not examine why breast cancer incidence would have plateaued.

However, Edwards and others said it could be due to a combination of factors, including: the use of mammography appears to have peaked, the number of women delaying child-bearing may have stabilized and the use of hormones after menopause has plummeted.

“These are just some hypotheses. There may be other factors we don’t know about,” said Ahmedin Jemal of the American Cancer Society.

Although the death rate from breast cancer has been dropping due to earlier diagnosis and improved treatment, the new numbers mark the first sign that the number of women getting breast cancer may have stopped increasing.

That would mark a milestone with major public health implications because of the large number of women diagnosed with the disease.

Nearly 213,000 women find out they have breast cancer and nearly 41,000 die of the disease each year, making it the most common cancer in women and the second leading cancer killer after lung cancer.

Some advocates, however, expressed doubt about the numbers, saying cancer reporting is highly unreliable.

“I don’t trust the accuracy of these numbers,” said Barbara Brenner of Breast Cancer Action, a San Francisco-based advocacy group, adding that far too many women are still being struck by the disease.