Bush is asset and liability to state GOP

11/28/2005

But for now, fundraising prowess outweighs impact of poor ratings

BY BILL SALISBURY
Pioneer Press

Although President Bush’s job-approval ratings are in the tank, he’s still No. 1 when it comes to raising campaign cash.

That’s why Republican U.S. Senate candidate Mark Kennedy invited Bush to the Twin Cities on Dec. 9 to speak at a fundraising luncheon.

The president is expected to raise more than $1 million for Kennedy, the 6th District congressman. Then Bush will quickly get out of town before he becomes a drag on Kennedy’s campaign.

If Bush’s popularity rankings don’t start to improve significantly, don’t expect to see him back in Minnesota any time soon. While he’s unparalleled as a fundraiser, he could become a political liability later on the campaign trail for an otherwise strong Minnesota Republican Party and its candidates.

“My hunch is this may be his last visit” before the 2006 elections, Larry Jacobs, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, said last week.

State Republican leaders hope Bush’s political woes are just a speed bump in their long ascension to power in Minnesota. Over the past decade or so, they have turned a blue state into a purple one. Democrats no longer dominate the state; the two major parties are at rough parity.

But now Minnesota Republicans are swimming against a national tide. The public has turned increasingly sour on the war in Iraq, the government’s ineffective initial response to Hurricane Katrina, rising fuel costs, a CIA-leak scandal and a so-so economy. The Republican Congress that promised bold changes is getting little done. Last month, Gov. Tim Pawlenty said the national GOP is “on the ropes.”

The state party, by contrast, appears strong and getting stronger, no thanks to the president.

In a flurry of recent national polls, Bush’s job-approval scores have hovered in the high 30s. In Minnesota, 38 percent of voters approved of the job he’s doing in a SurveyUSA poll conducted earlier this month.

Some prominent Republicans are shying away from Bush. Rep. J.D. Hayworth, R-Ariz., recently said he wouldn’t want the president to campaign for him right now. Sen. Rick Santorum, a Pennsylvania Republican in a close re-election race, avoided appearing in public with Bush during a presidential visit to his state.

But there’s a difference between campaigning and raising money. Plenty of Republicans, including Kennedy, are eager to take advantage of Bush’s fundraising prowess.

“No one can raise more money than the president of the United States,” said Annette Meeks, chief executive of the Center of the American Experiment.

Bush will speak at a $1,000-a-plate luncheon at the Minneapolis Hilton, said former U.S. Sen. Rudy Boschwitz, chairman of the event. He said the president remains very popular among the GOP faithful. Indeed, the SurveyUSA poll showed that 83 percent of Minnesota Republicans approved of Bush’s job performance (while 91 percent of Democrats disapproved).

There’s little downside for Kennedy in an early presidential visit. Democrats would try to portray the congressman as Bush’s rubber stamp whether he visits the state or not.

“If you’re going to get criticized anyway, you might as well raise a million dollars at the same time,” said independent analyst Jennifer Duffy, managing editor of the Cook Political Report, a Washington political handicapping publication.

Bush’s visit will be a distant memory for most voters by Election Day, and Kennedy has 11 months to distance himself from the president’s record if he remains unpopular.

“When the president’s numbers aren’t great, the other side wants to talk about him,” said Kennedy campaign manager Pat Shortridge. “I think they make a big mistake if that’s what they focus the campaign on.

“Minnesotans are solution-oriented. They want to hear about how you’re going to solve the problems facing the country: keeping the economy going, winning the war on terror, improving education, reforming health care. We’re going to run on Mark’s ideas and record, not on anybody else’s agenda.”

Democrats will indeed characterize Bush’s visit as Kennedy’s reward for being a loyal soldier for the administration, said Brian Melendez, the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party chairman.

“I hope the president comes early and often,” Melendez said. “He’s our best fundraiser. Every time he comes into the state, money pours into the DFL. And every time he comes, he emphasizes who’s toeing his administration’s line.”

Bush’s visit also reinforces the notion that the race for the Senate seat being vacated by Democrat Mark Dayton will be one of the most hotly contested in the nation. Duffy said it’s the only Democratic Senate seat that she rates as a toss-up.

“Minnesota is yet again going to be ground zero in national politics,” Jacobs said.

In addition to raising money for Kennedy, the president’s visit should energize grass-roots Republican activists, said state GOP Chairman Ron Carey. It will remind them how much Bush values Minnesota and how important next year’s elections are, he said.

Carey said Republican volunteers are already highly motivated by the prospects for very competitive 2006 contests for governor, U.S. senator and a large number of legislative seats.

“We are getting battle ready,” he said.

While the national party struggles, the Minnesota GOP seems robust. Jacobs said it appears to have a stronger organization than the DFL in terms of recruiting candidates, avoiding internal party fights, fundraising and grass-roots organizing.

“The state party is the strongest I’ve seen in my 20 years in politics,” said Meeks, the conservative think tank leader.

But if Bush’s approval ratings continue to sag next year, it could have an “anti-coattail effect” that discourages Republicans from voting, said Minneapolis pollster Bill Morris.

“With the president at that low a level of popularity, the question isn’t whether or not there will be anti-coattails,” Morris said. “It’s how significant they’re going to be.”

Bill Salisbury can be reached at or 651-228-5538. Online: See how the races are shaping up for next year’s election. Go to http://www.twincities.com and click on the politics page.

President Bush will speak at a GOP luncheon fundraiser next week.