Claims About Al-Zarqawi Suggest Confusion

05/27/2005

BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) - Speculation about Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s fate and conflicting claims Thursday over who is running al-Qaida in Iraq suggest confusion or perhaps even a power struggle within Iraq’s most lethal terror group.

Who would replace the Jordanian-born militant as leader of the group responsible for multiple bombings, beheadings and assassinations in Iraq is becoming as hot a topic as whether the feared terrorist is actually alive or dead.

But Iraq’s rampant insurgency, in which thousands have been killed in the past two years, would not be derailed even in the event of al-Zarqawi’s absence, some experts warn.

“The real danger in Iraq is you have more than 50 attacks a day, with some made by al-Zarqawi and 80 percent made by others,” said Diaa Rashwan, an expert on radical Islam at Egypt’s Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies.


“It’s not really a problem of who will be the successor,” Rashwan said. “He’s not a real leader of a real organization, he’s a symbol for a kind of network for small Islamic groups which share tactics and ideology.”

Speculation over the group’s future leadership has soared since Tuesday’s Internet “announcement” in the name of the media coordinator for al-Qaida’s Iraq branch, Abu Maysara al-Iraqi, that al-Zarqawi had been wounded and that Muslims should pray for him.

Another web statement Thursday said a Saudi Arabian militant known as Abu Hafs al-Gerni had been made the group’s interim leader - or “deputy of the holy warriors” - until al-Zarqawi recovered from his wounds.

Al-Gerni “was known for carrying out the hardest operations, and our sheik would choose him and his group for the tough operations,” it said.

That statement was signed in a name unfamilitar from past statements - Abu Doujanah al-Tunisi of the media committee for al-Qaida’s Iraq branch.

Shortly after, a rival statement appeared on the same Internet site, again in Abu Maysara al-Iraqi’s name, refuting suggestions that a replacement had been named.

None of the claims could be authenticated, but the continuing flurry of Internet statements and public comments over al-Zarqawi’s fate and al-Qaida’s future is lending weight to suspicions that change is in the offing in the leadership of Iraq’s rampant insurgency.

U.S. officials said they couldn’t confirm reports of al-Zarqawi’s death or wounding. However, one U.S. defense official who spoke on condition of anonymity said the military’s most credible sources lean toward the idea that al-Zarqawi is injured or wounded, not dead.

The respected pan-Arab newspaper Al Hayat reported several candidates were gearing up to claim al-Zarqawi’s throne. Al-Gerni was not among those named, but Abu Maysara al-Iraqi, the man quick to rule out al-Gerni’s appointment, was among those listed.

Al Hayat quoted multiple unidentified sources as saying figures in Jordan close to al-Zarqawi, including a former Iraqi officer, named Abu Maysara al-Iraqi as a potential successor along with Abu al-Dardaa al-Iraqi, an al-Qaida operative in Baghdad.

Al-Gerni has been al-Zarqawi’s military adviser and is the emir, or prince - as senior commanders are called - of al-Qaida’s military committee in Iraq, two Middle East experts on Islamic militants told The Associated Press on condition they not be further identified.

Al-Zarqawi’s name has come up a number of times in recent weeks.

A U.S. general said he may have personally chaired a meeting of his chief lieutenants in Syria a month ago aimed at ramping up suicide bombings and other attacks in Iraq.

Earlier this month, Iraqi security forces raided a Baghdad hospital after getting a tip that the master of disguise was receiving medical attention. Police came up with thin air.

U.S. forces launched a weeklong offensive in the country’s far west to root out al-Zarqawi supporters using the arid desert region to hide, stage terrorist attacks and crisscross between Iraq and Syria along ancient smuggling routes.

Army Brig. Gen. Carter Ham, commander of Task Force Olympia who directed thousands of troops during 13 months of operations in al-Zarqawi’s former stomping ground of northern Iraq, expects the militant’s killing or capture will lead to “some decision-making as to who would step up and take his place.”

“My only caution is we ought not expect that when that happens, that the organization will crumble and will cease to exist,” Ham told a Pentagon briefing. “The organization has proven to be somewhat resilient.”