Coleman’s seat: Pols already chattering

02/13/2007

Some Democrats worry Ciresi and Franken don't have the clout to win what's viewed as a vulnerable GOP seat.


By Rob Hotakainen, and PATRICIA LOPEZ
Star Tribune
Last update: February 12, 2007 – 10:32 PM


WASHINGTON - It's bucks against yuks, Vin Weber says.

That's what the Republican strategist is calling the Democratic battle in Minnesota's 2008 Senate race, which kicks into high gear this week as one of the most competitive races in the nation.

The bucks belong to Mike Ciresi, a rich trial lawyer who announced Sunday that he's exploring a candidacy against Republican Sen. Norm Coleman. The yuks would come from comedian Al Franken, who's expected to follow suit on Wednesday.

With Coleman ranked among the Senate's most vulnerable GOP incumbents next year, analysts predict the field will grow larger in a contest that's already attracting plenty of national attention.

"I don't know that either of them are the super heavyweight Democrats are looking for," said Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the Rothenberg Political Report.

Despite his fame, Franken has no experience as a candidate, and Ciresi faltered when he ran for Senate in 2000.

In its early rankings, Cook Political Report is giving the edge to Coleman, saying the 2008 race should "lean Republican."

But the Minnesota seat is listed as the second most vulnerable for Republicans to defend, trailing only Colorado among the 21 Republican Senate seats on the ballot in 2008.

"My guess is right now this is the marquee race of the cycle -- this is the one that gets all the attention, because of Franken," said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor and political analyst of Cook Political Report.

She's expecting more Democratic candidates, too: "Once it's a two-way race, it pretty quickly becomes a three or a four-way race."

Chuck Todd, the editor in chief of National Journal's Hotline, said Minnesota's endorsement process does not necessarily reward the wealthiest or most famous candidate, making it more likely that others will join the fray.

"I would assume somebody else is going to look at it and say, 'Paul Wellstone was not one of these guys, and Amy Klobuchar wasn't one of these people,' " Todd said.

While Franken's presence will keep Minnesota in the national spotlight, his expected candidacy has not taken Washington by storm.

"The reaction on Capitol Hill was: 'The DFL can't do better?' " said Jonathan Weisman, congressional reporter for the Washington Post, answering a question recently in an online political discussion.

Blois Olson, the Democratic half of the Politics in Minnesota publishing team, said that Democrats have reservations about both Franken and Ciresi.

"A U.S. Senate race is all about discipline, focus and staying on message," Olson said. "Those are things people are really unsure Franken can do."

While Franken has worked hard at a grass-roots level, Olson said, "there's a certain unpredictability with him that people are really concerned about."

But Democrats may have trouble coming up with alternatives, said Jeff Blodgett, who led campaigns for Wellstone: "The reality is we don't have a very deep bench."

He said a credible campaign against Coleman will cost a minimum of $10 million: "It's obscene, but it's the reality. There aren't a lot of candidates who can raise that kind of money."

Sam Kaplan, a Minneapolis attorney who raised money for Wellstone and other candidates, said the race already has Minnesota on new ground.

"We've never had this kind of experience, where 21 months out you have two such potentially well-funded campaigns," Kaplan said. "The question is whether another candidate will step in and try to characterize himself as the anti-money candidate."

It's possible, Kaplan said, "but he would have to be a very good candidate."

Duffy said that Franken will have to show his stuff as a first-time candidate and that Ciresi must prove he's a better candidate than he was in 2000.

She said that there are "countless examples" of famous and wealthy candidates falling flat and that Franken's past as a comedy writer and his years with NBC's "Saturday Night Live" will provide Republicans with much ammunition.

"The biggest expense the Coleman campaign is going to have is opposition research," she added.

Todd predicted that any Democrat running against Coleman will have an easy time raising money.

He said that while none of the GOP incumbents who are seeking reelection in 2008 generate the same sort of passion from Democrats as former Republican Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania did last year, "the person that comes closest is Norm Coleman."

Todd said Coleman's chances of winning a second term could depend more on the national political environment than on the quality of his challenger.

"If the war's the issue, there may be nothing Norm Coleman can do and it may not matter who the Democrats nominate," he said.

Duffy said it's unlikely that the political environment will be as favorable for Democrats in 2008 as it was last year. And she said Minnesota Democrats last year quickly closed ranks behind Klobuchar.

"It doesn't look to me like they'll be able to do that again," she said.