Constraint As A Strategic Political Tool

02/22/2005

Paul Munnis

In engineering when every potential solution is blocked by a constraint then the problem becomes unsolvable when enough such constraints are levied.

That has become a GOP strategy, to leave only one door open to solving a problem; the door that the GOP wants government to move through. All other paths are constrained.

Here are some examples:

• We have a bad Medicare Prescription Drug Program enacted last year. It has a cost overrun of $174Billion dollars. Constraint #1:The Bush Administration refused to allow the testimony of a key analyst at the Social Security Administration to testify to Congress that this was a case of false fiscal assumptions. Constraint #2: Now that Congress wants to fix the mistake Bush has told them he will veto the legislation if it comes to his desk. The result: there seems to be no way to remove this poor legislation, enacted by deception, and thus get rid of the $174 Billion deficit that it represents.

• There are several fixes to our Social Security funding approach that will assure solvency. Bush has constrained all solutions except the one solution that he advocates. If any of the others are enacted into law Bush will then veto the legislation.

• Minnesota needs new revenue streams and the Governor has taken a “No New Taxes Pledge,” thus constraining the solution to just user fee increases.

• In Iraq, Bush made sure that the new Iraqi government knows that if asked to leave Iraq he will not do so; thus constraining their power to get rid of the U.S. troops on the Iraqi soil.

The list goes on and on and there are too many instances of this for it to be other than a calculated strategy for manipulation of government, people, and events.

The only way to fix these sorts of constrained problems is to change the controlling variables. For example: eliminate the Tax Payer’s League as a funding source for candidates and the constraint of such a pledge will block much funding for them. Remove Bush from office and the veto constraint goes away. Change the attitude of Congress or the MN Legislature to one of accepting a veto. For example: “We gave you a valid solution and you vetoed it. We don’t own this problem anymore. We solved the problem.” Again, these problems will then go away as the constraints fall.

The typical manner of constraint resolution for Democrats has been the use of the Courts and the use of Congressional power elements like use of the filibuster. The Bushies are moving to fully constrain those two areas too. We are going to need to invent some new solutions if we want to act as the loyal opposition.

One strategy is the “Zero Solution.” That is to keep a problem so constrained that when it becomes a crisis one refuses to give a support to a solution unless constraints are removed elsewhere thus lowering the kinds of constraints that are left to deal with. This is power brokering at the highest level and the sort of thing that Lyndon Johnson cut his teeth on. We are going to have get real good at that sort of thing. Sen. Reid is likely a hardball player of the Johnson cut and we will soon know if he and Nancy Pelosi can get tough.

Europe is using another strategic solution on Bush and it’s the “insufficient pledge of help in time of crisis” strategy. Here one does not say “No,” instead one says “Yes,” but then makes sure that the amount of support delivered are too little, too late, or too tainted to be useful. For example Bush wants NATO help in training the Iraqi Army. European leaders are not saying “No,” they are saying “Yes,” but they have their own constraints added making their offer worthless as a solution to Bush’s problem.

The history of politics is that this sort of hardball is played back and forth and the results are that a lot of frustration happens between the parties but the net effect is that nothing of real lasting significance ever gets done. In other words the constraints don’t force people to go through the door that they are being herded towards; instead the herd just sits down on the floor and refuses to go through any doors at all. When a solution is then taken by the majority in desperation to solve their crisis it’ll likely be a failure just as the Medicare Bill was when they refused to let Democrats attend the House Conferences on the Bill. They had their way to the tune of a $174 Billion dollar goof.

As we look back on the last four years of the Bush record its not very good. As we look ahead it looks like it will be pretty much of a record of under achievement.

Anyone who has had to deal with an uncooperative child understands these strategies and all the efforts needed at behavior modification to overcome and manage them. Usually some mutual accommodations are required for peace to reign supreme once again.

We suggest that we have a rocky four years ahead. The good news is that we are on the bumpiest path in 2005, as the elections of 2006 approach the Congress will need to have something to show and will become more conciliatory as a result. As 2008 elections approach, the record of lies, innuendos, and constraints will surface and be used as a weapon against GOP election.

This is a bad way to run a railroad or a country, but it’s the GOP way right now.

These sorts of strategy all fail miserably when they are put up against a record of solid achievement resulting from bi-partisanship. When the two parties work together it brings credit upon the party that is in power. As the record of solid achievements build then it becomes harder to defeat the incumbents. That is why sometimes a political reign can last for so long in politics. We are at a point where the GOP is still campaigning and not governing very well. That means they will fail miserably in the coming four years.