Education, health care knot race for governor

09/21/2006

Despite Pawlenty’s strong job rating in poll, Hatch has edge on two key issues

BY BILL SALISBURY
Pioneer Press

Governor Tim Pawlenty, left, and Attorney General Mike HatchFor Minnesotans in 2006, it’s about education and health care — not President Bush or the economy, a new poll shows. And that is why Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Attorney General Mike Hatch are running neck and neck in the governor’s race, a poll analyst says, even though most Minnesotans approve of the job Pawlenty is doing.

The statewide survey released Wednesday showed 44 percent of likely Minnesota voters would vote for Democrat Hatch, while 42 percent favor Republican Pawlenty. With a 3.9 percentage point margin of error, that makes the race a tossup.

More than half those surveyed said they liked Pawlenty and nearly half thought the state was heading in the right direction. With approval like that, a candidate would traditionally get re-elected.

So when only 42 percent support Pawlenty’s re-election, “that’s unusual, to say the least,” said Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota’s Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs.

“He enjoys a number of advantages, including high approval ratings and voter satisfaction with the state’s direction and the respect of voters for his handling of the economy,” Jacobs and his research associate, Joanne Miller, wrote in an analysis. “What was expected to be his big liability — the unpopularity of President George W. Bush — is surprisingly not a factor.

“Instead, the governor finds himself locked in a draw because voters are preoccupied with education and health care, and Hatch enjoys a commanding advantage on those issues.”

The university political center commissioned the survey of 1,023 likely Minnesota voters that was conducted Sept. 13-18. The Center for Survey Research and Analysis at the University of Connecticut performed the fieldwork. The poll also showed 9 percent of likely voters favoring Independence Party gubernatorial candidate Peter Hutchinson. Five percent were undecided.

Pawlenty is well liked. Fifty-six percent of poll respondents approved of his job performance. In addition, 48 percent said the state is heading in the right direction, compared with 43 percent who said it’s on the wrong track.

Education and health care appear to be the issues dragging Pawlenty down. Twenty-three percent of voters rank each of them as the most important issues in Minnesota. The economy lags behind them with 15 percent identifying it as the top issue.

The two issues of most concern to Minnesotans work to Hatch’s advantage. About 55 percent of voters that identified education and health care as their top issues support Hatch, compared to one-third for Pawlenty.

Asked which candidate would do a better job of handling education, 51 percent picked Hatch while 30 percent said Pawlenty.

Hatch had an even bigger advantage on health care, where 57 percent said he would do a better job to 24 percent for Pawlenty.

Two social issues that Pawlenty has stressed, illegal immigration and gay marriage, are not big concerns for most voters. Just 7 percent chose illegal immigration as the state’s most important issue, and 4 percent picked gay marriage.

Pawlenty’s struggles aren’t Bush’s fault, Jacobs and Miller concluded.

Although only 38 percent of Minnesotans approve of the president’s job performance, 16 percent of those who disapprove still support the governor. An in-depth analysis of Bush’s impact on Pawlenty found no significant damage, Jacobs said.