Handicap Politick’ng

12/14/2005

Paul Munnis

MSNBC News has been spinning the upcoming 2006 election and saying that we Democrats are giddy about winning in 2006 and that we need to cool-it because we have many obstacles ahead.

Here are the two biggest problems that they report:

1. The Math

Perhaps the biggest obstacle is next year’s map. Republicans currently hold a 55-45 advantage in the Senate, a 230-203 advantage in the House, and a 28-22 advantage in governorships. Although there will be 33 Senate contests next year, only one of them—in Tennessee—features a Republican-held seat that’s open. That means Democrats, in order to take back control of the Senate, have to defeat five GOP incumbents, plus win the open seat. And that’s assuming Democrats don’t lose any seats they currently hold.

In the House, all 435 seats are up for grabs, but the nonpartisan Cook Political Report says that just 28 of them are competitive, and 18 of these are held by Republicans. That means Democrats must win 83 percent of these GOP-held competitive seats to take back the House, says National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Carl Forti. “The math is very difficult.”

For Democrats, however, the math looks much better when it comes to next year’s 36 gubernatorial races. Republicans must defend 22 seats (seven of which have no incumbent, and that number could increase), while Democrats defend 14 seats (just one of which is open).

2. Republicans & Democrats share obstacles

But Bernadette Budde, the senior vice president at BIPAC, a pro-business political group that mainly supports Republican candidates (also some Democrats), points out that Democrats have another challenge to overcome: The public is angry—and not just at Republicans. Indeed, the November NBC/ Journal survey found that just 24 percent believe Republicans in Congress share their priorities, while 26 percent said Democrats do. “Anyone holding office and isn’t doing their job ... can be thrown out of office,” Budde said at a press briefing last week. “We are thinking there could be a lot of surprises” in 2006.

Yet Hoyer believes the surprises will ultimately come at the GOP’s expense. “Are Democrats popular at this point? No, we’re not. But why? Because the Republicans have created in the consciousness of the American people such a disappointment in politics in general. But the fact is, the Republicans control the town.” He concluded, “The only way Americans are going to get change is to vote to change the leadership of the Congress.”

Rod Smith, a Democratic Florida state senator who’s running for governor next year, put it this way when he addressed the conference: “The Republicans have been doing their part to make sure we win. Let’s do our part.”

3. More Factors Considered

So then, the math is the biggest problem. Yet as GOP scandals continue, corruption is uncovered, and prosecutions continue, many voters may have to vote for candidates under indictment or who are in jail in order to vote GOP. These are not considered good candidates with bright prospects. Some key players are in the news too: Tom DeLay, Bill Frist, and perhaps soon: Karl Rove. So far, the awards of contracts to Bush Administration cronies has not been delved into very deeply. The scandals with Jack Abrahansom is likely to leave a few political corpses too.

Also, a recent poll of the red states showed GOP popularity to be in dire straits. If the election were held today only 8 red states would vote for the GOP. As unpopular as Bush is in those states the Congress is seen to rate even lower in those opinion polls. Democrats are sending field organizers to work the red states with a view to making sure people understand the alternatives.

Then too, the GOP is split themselves over the Iraqi war and GOP fiscal deficits. Many are not happy with those situations and they seek and advocate major change. Not the least important are GOP calls for withdrawing from Iraq. Democrats do not own that war issue at all, in fact the GOP and Democrats are both split over it in Congress but the public isn’t. There is a solid majority who say that we should get our troops home from Iraq. Indeed these problems are becoming serious for the GOP as coalitions are being formed in Congress that are robbing GOP strength while bolstering Democrat strength and overall bi-partisanship.

Did we mention the Social Security play of the GOP that failed this year? Voters are seething at the attempts to rob them of their retirement rights and pension funds. The GOP expects to pay a a heavy price over those two issues alone. My own talks with younger voters indicate they are very angry that Congress has allowed the credit card companies to gouge them and they plan to make that an issue in the 2006 campaign. Many are also angry over tuition increases and still other voters are angry over cuts to childrens programs and to child healthcare.

Finally, the economy is a major factor and the wind is not blowing well for the GOP as deficits climb, layoffs and job losses continue, illegal immigrants take American jobs, globalization is also now floundering over the issue of failing to eliminate farm subsidies which could cost the GOP a lot of farm votes, the dollar exchange rate looks like it could move lower over debt burden, and the balance of payments on trade accounts are worsening as oil prices start to warp towards $100 per barrel. A major problem for jobs too is the lack of a healthcare plan that is viable and then the GOP sponsored drug plan is blowing apart as people cannot advise their elders how to manage the offering. None of these isses favor the GOP in the least. It will not be hard for opponents to paint incumbants as fiddling while Rome burns.

Conclusion

We can understand Democrats being hopeful and optimistic. We have been on the ropes for five years. We are watching our own first district GOP congressman for example, take the pulse of the district, discovering the preferences for Democratic leadership, and suddenly trying to be more Democratic than Ted Kennedy himself. We are seeing more of the same from the governor’s office in St. Paul. They are worried and rightly so. That gives us encouragement to work just a little harder. We don’t feel giddy but more optimistic than we were at this time last year. We are encouraged by the failed strategy of Karl Rove to split the nation over virtually every subject that he could think of. The result has been to fragment the GOP and to send many more votes our way.

Yet we have to watch it in 2006. We are not running against G.W. Bush, he has won his election, we are running to get Congressional seats.

What if Democrats don’t win all of the needed seats but we narrow the gap to a point where there is only a few seats difference in the size of the two Parties in Congress? Then that alone will force more bi-partisan and collegial behavior and end this “My Party First,” attitude of the neo-cons. It will force them to reconsider and to put “My Country and My District First,” if they want to stay in office for 2008. Checks and balances could once again start to work for Americans.

As Yogi Berra puts it: “It ain’t over, till it’s over.”