Insiders say incumbents vulnerable

04/30/2005

Dane Smith and Patricia Lopez, Star Tribune
May 1, 2005

The end times are approaching for the 2005 Legislature, and many of the mortals under the dome are bracing for another apocalyptic appearance of the four horsemen who have plagued recent sessions: chaos, acrimony, deadlock and an overtime session, conceivably leading to a state government shutdown on July 1.

“Almost nobody is optimistic,” says Sarah Janecek, a lobbyist and publisher of a guidebook and newsletter about the Legislature. “This time it feels like there’s not even any internal pressure to get things done. I think everybody has accepted the fact that May 23 [the scheduled adjournment date] means nothing.”

The top leaders of the three-way, but mostly two-on-one, struggle—Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty and House Speaker Steve Sviggum on one side and DFL Senate Majority Leader Dean Johnson on the other—insist for the record that it’s in everybody’s political interest to split their differences.

“I don’t think the meltdown strategy works for anybody,” Sviggum, R-Kenyon, said. “My bottom-line thought is that the citizens are telling us we have to cooperate and work together.”

The disastrous 2004 session, the only one in memory that ended without basic business getting done, even on legislation both parties wanted, was hard on incumbents and especially House Republicans, who had their margin over DFLers trimmed from 28 seats to 2.

Some insiders suggest that another protracted fight will be bad for all incumbents, perhaps triggering takeovers in both chambers and producing a Republican Senate, a DFL House and a tougher re-election fight for Pawlenty.

Pawlenty agrees that voters are likely to “take a dim view” of another impasse and develop a “pox on all of you” sentiment. On the other hand, he said, seven out of the last 10 sessions have gone into overtime, and anti-incumbent reaction did not follow all of them, he said.

On his travels through the state recently, Pawlenty said, “one of the main messages we’re delivering is to call your legislator and urge them to get done on time.” Although he said he is committed and hopeful, Pawlenty said the Senate’s delay in producing details on its budget and tax proposals is a “troubling sign” that the Senate intends to go into overtime.

Senate Majority Leader Dean Johnson, DFL-Willmar, said that the DFL-led Senate has “absolutely no intention of being a roadblock or stopping progress.”

Already, Johnson said, they’ve agreed on a $945 million bonding bill and are close to an accord on higher ethanol levels. All parties have agreed that increased funding for schools is a must-do, although the levels are in dispute.

Within grasp, Johnson said, is a session that produces a balanced budget, “a reasonable tax increase,” a preservation of health care for the 30,000 people threatened with its loss, “maybe a Gophers stadium and agreement on a Twins stadium,” environmental protections and a tough public safety bill that addresses sex offenders and methamphetamine. “It’s all right there,” he said. “If politics could take one step over, it will be a good session.”

All about the budget

Thousands of bills have been introduced and hundreds have passed one chamber or the other, but the session revolves around the state’s two-year budget. There’s also another round in a long-standing battle over Republican efforts to put a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage or civil unions on the November 2006 ballot, and a number of other standard non-budget controversies.

Under current laws and program formulas, the state faces a $466 million shortfall for the two-year period beginning July 1. Pawlenty and the House propose to cut health-care subsidies for the working poor and middle class and a variety of other programs, but also to increase spending on education, and to spend about $29.8 billion over the next two years.

The health care cuts, in particular, have become a major point of contention between the two parties. Deficit problems aside, Pawlenty maintains that cuts to state health care programs are essential to reining in long-term costs. DFLers have said that throwing 30,000 working Minnesotans off MinnesotaCare will only boost costs elsewhere in the system and result in a poorer quality of life.

Although generally in sync, Pawlenty and the House are at odds on one important revenue-raising idea: an expansion of gambling that would bring about $200 million to the state. Last week, the House delivered a blow to Pawlenty’s proposal to authorize a new Indian tribal casino and a racino in the metro area by sending it back to an unfriendly committee.

The biggest source of strife: The Senate wants $1.4 billion in new spending while the Republican-led House and governor want about $1 billion more. The Senate wants to rely on tax increases, while the House and Pawlenty have said that statewide tax increases are a deal-breaker.

Waiting for Senate

The DFL Senate budget plan is still taking shape, in no small part because DFLers are still figuring out what kind of tax increase they can most realistically sell to the public to pay for additional spending.

But make no mistake, a tax increase of some kind—most likely the income tax—is at the heart of the Senate budget plan. DFLers have concluded that enough Minnesotans have felt the effects of tighter budgets that they are willing to pony up.

Of course, it’s easier to pony up someone else’s money, which is why the Senate plan most likely will confine any income tax increase to those making more than $200,000, according to Senate Taxes Chairman Larry Pogemiller, DFL-Minneapolis.

He and other DFLers in the House and Senate say that after years of flat funding for schools, thousands of working Minnesotans forced off state-subsidized health insurance, ever higher college tuitions and a plethora of fees, Minnesotans are looking for a substantial budget shorn of gimmickry.

Senate Majority Leader Johnson said he hopes to shift the public perception of the debate at the Capitol. “It’s not a choice between taxes and no taxes,” he said. Republican budgets, he said, rely on higher property taxes, accounting shifts and fees. “We need to be honest about how we’re going to pay for things,” he said.

The Republican-led House has its own budget troubles. Unable to form a solid majority around a gambling proposal, Sviggum was forced to put out two budget plans. Plan ‘A’ relies on yet another one-time accounting shift—$184 million—and features a level of spending so miserly that even Republican leaders don’t want it.

Plan ‘B’ uses money from a casino deal that is headed for its most hostile committee—House Taxes, led by the notoriously gambling-averse Rep. Phil Krinkie, R-Shoreview.

There has been some splintering in the House caucus on taxes, with several Republican legislators proposing a gas tax, or barely-disguised taxes, such as the wholesale increase on cigarettes. House DFLers are hoping to widen those cracks and draw enough Republicans to pass a tax increase targeted at schools and nursing homes—popular causes in outstate districts.

Meanwhile, Pawlenty’s own budget plan depends on $200 million from a casino proposal that seems to lose traction daily. While he wants new spending, too, Pawlenty has vowed to veto any bill with a statewide tax increase in it.

As for the hole that might be left in his own budget should the gambling deal die, a defiant Pawlenty said at a recent news conference that legislators would have to figure out on their own how to fill the gap.

All of which sets the leaders up for a grand three-way collision.

“It’s hard to see how they get themselves out of this one,” said Nan Madden, director of the Minnesota Budget Project, an initiative of the Minnesota Council of Nonprofits. “People ask me all the time ‘Are we headed for a stalemate like last year?’ I tell them no, we’re headed for an all new stalemate.”

Madden said she sees more internal struggles this time: House Republicans unable to agree on a casino, a Senate DFL caucus torn between spending for health care vs. schools. And, she said, legislators of all stripes are gun-shy about how to raise new revenues.

“It just seems like the breakdown is happening further up the line this time,” she said.