It’s a long, rough road out of Baghdad

07/10/2007

When war starts it takes on a life of its own as the proponents for war seize the media and shout and clamor for war thus inflaming the passions of people and making politicians unable to resist authorizing war. At that point a nation gets swept up in war fever and stopping a war is neigh on to impossible.

It is worse when war ends.

There are people who think they can control the timetable for the end of war but when governments collapse, when troops are surrounded by hostile forces, when supply lines are cut, when troops have to shoot their way out to reach sanctuary, then chaos takes over and notions about orderly withdrawal are just so much nonsense. At that point it’s a scramble for life or death. Troops becoming isolated from the main force are in great danger and easily overwhelmed.

In Iraq we have many contractors who will want out. It is said there are more of them then there are American troops. We will have millions of refugees who will want out too.

We have only a few routes of egress. American troops on those routes will want priority and anyone or anything that gets in their way will be brushed aside.

There are the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers but rivers are quite easy to block simply by blowing bridges and shoving debris into them. Then there is the matter of boats, barges, and ferry's available for use. Rivers will be used but they are problematic and need early requisition of equipment.

There are limited airlift facilities in Iraq and the option of taking 160,000 troops, plus contractors, plus political refugees out by air is a very limited option. The seaport at Basra is a small one with small limited harbor facilities. The trip from Baghdad to Kuwait is a long one and becomes an inviting target for enemy forces with troops bottled up on that route. The Turkish border is reputed to have 140,000 Turksish Army forces massed along it and unless safe passage for Americans is arranged and their help invoked, the northerly route will be cut off. That is where diplomacy is urgently needed from our State department.

Meanwhile in Washington we hear Senators talking like there is all the time in the world and that we are in total control of the timetable of war. We are not. These things take on a life of their own. In the end an extraction of forces from a combat area is one of the most delicate of military operations for it means that force commanders have to bring as much order out of chaos as is possible. Often they fail or are forced into strict prioritization and the result is much loss of life. We will lose troops in any extraction -- the question is how many.

It is likely the new fancy embassy in Baghdad will be abandoned. Most military equipment will have to be abandoned. Some will be sabotaged to make it impossible to use afterwards. For example, diesel engines can be destroyed, gun-barrels blocked and exploded, and artillery rendered useless. That is all done if there is enough time to do so. If not, the military just turns its back on the equipment and walks.

Aircraft will be flown out if operational. If not, they will be abandoned -- ditto for helicopters.

Codes, and ciphers will be destroyed. Sensitive communications equipment will be destroyed. Munitions will be carried to some extent for mobile light arms weapons but heavy munitions will be abandoned and perhaps detonated if there is time.

Soldiers usually have to walk out because getting fuel and making vehicle repairs is impossible. Broken down vehicles clogging escape routes are a liability that cannot be afforded.

The map below shows the concentration of dissidents in Iraq and where resistance is likely to be greatest and it can be seen that our troops are somewhat bottled up with limited escape routes:

It is said that an Army marches on its stomach and our military has gone over to the use of contractors to feed them. They will get their hands on some field rations but they will have to manage to carry these on their person as they withdraw and they can carry only so much. They will have to go on reduced rations as a result.

When water is added to the burden (at almost 7 pounds per gallon) to be carried across the desert then the situation becomes even worse. Our military will need to pre-position both rations and water along the escape routes and keep these supplied at oasis stations along the way. If not, our troops will die from hunger and thirst.

The rear guard of a withdrawing Army will see the heaviest fighting. Often it will be hand-to-hand combat and with little by way of heavy support available. Ideally, gun-ships, fighter aircraft, trucks, munitions, etc., would be available to support them for withdrawal. Practically speaking these become less available each day as fuel runs out, equipment breaks down and there are no repair parts or personnel, and even pilots and drivers are evacuated making fewer available for rear guard support.

This business of withdrawal or redeployment of forces is a term that implies order but often chaos is the real situation. It requires a lot of strict pragmatic decision making and great discipline that attempts to salvage as many men as possible. The goal is to salvage soldiers so they can fight another day. In the process civilians and refugees are shoved out of the way. Making it worse, insurgents infiltrate the civilian refugees and bring harassing fire onto withdrawing troops causing what may look like heavy slaughter of civilians by withdrawing forces since they must engage the enemy who are merged into the refugee groups.

The refugees too must eat, and drink, and get medical help. They will pilfer, steal, and attack withdrawing troops to get their rations. Civilians become as the enemy in an urgent withdrawal.

Right now politicians are warning of consequences to Iraq if Americans withdraw. This editorial is warning of consequences to American soldiers when we withdraw.

Mr. Bush and his staff needs to get cracking diplomatically now -- to cut the risk of loss to American life and to assure withdrawal routes and supplies for withdrawal. He needs to go past his stubborness, go on past the question of staying on in Iraq, to get real about the methods of leaving Iraq, and focus upon salvaging our troops.