Minnesota a political hot spot for 2006

01/04/2006

Biggest races likely to draw national attention — and cash

BY BILL SALISBURY
Pioneer Press

(ST. PAUL, MN) Ron Carey and Brian Melendez don’t agree on much, but the chairmen of Minnesota’s Republican and Democratic-Farmer-Labor parties concur that state voters are in for unusually spirited, intense and expensive election campaigns in 2006.

In interviews last week, the GOP and DFL leaders predicted Minnesota voters will be inundated, perhaps more than ever before, with radio and television advertising, mail and e-mail messages, political volunteers knocking on their doors and dropping leaflets on their front steps and a steady parade of big-name Democrats and Republicans making pitches for candidates.

The reason: Minnesota is once again a national battleground state. Since the state is almost evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans (with a large bloc of independents thrown in), it offers some of the most competitive races in the country.

It’s one of just two states (the other is Tennessee) where both the U.S. Senate and governor’s races are rated toss-ups, according to D.C.’s Political Report, an online political handicapping service.

Virtually every major office is up for election this year. In addition to the Senate seat being vacated by Democrat Mark Dayton and the office of Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty, the other three state constitutional offices, all eight congressional seats and all 201 seats in the Legislature will be on the ballot.

Add the Independence and Green parties to the mix, and voters will have an abundance of choices to make.
“I think (campaigning) will start earlier and with more intensity than ever before,” Carey predicted.

Most national attention will focus on the Senate race, where U.S. Rep. Mark Kennedy is virtually assured of the Republican nomination while three DFLers — veterinarian Ford Bell, Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar and children’s-safety advocate Patty Wetterling — are competing for their party’s endorsement.

The outcome could determine which party controls the U.S. Senate.

“That’s going to mean a whole lot of outside money pouring into Minnesota to try to influence the race,” Melendez said.
Carey agreed. “It’s easy to see this being a $50 million or $60 million Senate campaign,” he said. “It won’t just be Minnesota’s election; it will be much more nationalized.”

Democrats will try to make the Senate election a referendum on President Bush and the Republican-controlled Congress.

“We’ve had several cycles of Republican dominance, and look how things are going,” Melendez said. “We’re still mired in this war in Iraq. We are no closer to solving the Social Security mess that’s going to bite us all in a generation.
“We’ve got the biggest national debt in history, and it’s getting bigger. We’ve got a budget that is cutting basic services to the neediest people in our society while still growing the deficit. I think people can see that it’s not working.”
He suggested Democrats would try portraying Kennedy as Bush’s lapdog.

Carey, while contending that Kennedy is an independent-minded candidate, said he welcomes the focus on Bush. He said it would remind voters that the war on terrorism and personal security are big issues, and “those are winning issues for Republicans.”

“I hope (Bush) is here often,” he said. “While you can make a case that having the president with you in late 2005 would be a negative, I think getting close to the election it will be a huge positive, and I hope he’s going to be here to stand with our candidates.”

The governor’s race will be a referendum on Pawlenty, Melendez said. While Democrats will criticize many aspects of his record, he predicted the state government shutdown last summer would be a “millstone that’s going to hang around Tim Pawlenty’s neck. He’s the only governor in the history of Minnesota who has shut down our state government.”

Carey argued that charge won’t stick. He asserted the Senate DFL majority “wanted a government shutdown for political purposes” and most voters recognize that.

The GOP leader predicted voters would be more interested in Pawlenty’s record of “strong fiscal leadership,” having led the state from a $4.5 billion budget deficit to a $1 billion surplus. That leadership, Melendez said, has also contributed to deteriorating roads and double-digit property tax increases for homeowners.

Asked what the parties’ themes will be, Melendez replied, “I think you’re going to see Democratic candidates talking about real bread-and-butter issues — education, health care, jobs, transportation, energy. I think the Republicans are going to try to play on some of the wedge issues — abortion, gay marriage or immigration — to try to drive turnout among their base.’’

While Republicans have succeeded in using wedge issues, he said, increasing numbers of voters recognize that playing on people’s fears doesn’t improve their lives.

“You can get elected on wedge issues,” Melendez said, “but you can’t govern on them.”

Carey predicted Democrats would try to duck some social issues. For instance, he said: “I don’t believe most Minnesotans want to have same-sex marriage legalized in Minnesota. I think you’ll see the DFL doing everything they can to make that a nonissue because they know they’re on the wrong side.”

He insisted Republicans also are eager to talk about bread-and-butter issues, especially jobs and education. He ticked off a list of statistics on the state’s low unemployment rate, high test scores for students and levels of state aid for education.

“We have a great record and will be happy to take it to the Democrats,” he said.

Tired of the back and forth between Democrats and Republicans? The Independence Party will offer a third option again this year, said party Chairman Jim Moore.

The party of former Gov. Jesse Ventura plans to put up credible candidates for all the statewide offices and many legislative seats, Moore said.

Their theme will be “Tired of government gridlock?” Moore said the two big parties have produced failed legislative sessions, recurring budget deficits and no vision for the state’s future.

“What they’re doing isn’t working for you,” he said.

The Independence Party will field candidates with clear visions for Minnesota’s future and concrete ideas for how to get there, he said.

The Green Party is searching for candidates for the state’s major offices, and its local units are recruiting legislative candidates, said Nick Riley, the party’s former state chairman. He expects Green candidates to emphasize the impact the war in Iraq is having on the lives of families, young people and local economies.

Key dates in a busy political year:

March 1 — Minnesota legislative session convenes.

March 7 — Precinct caucuses. Eligible voters can go to their local caucuses to help shape the party platform and select delegates for local party conventions.

May 5-6 — Republican 6th Congressional District convention at Monticello High School. The 6th District is the only one without an incumbent in the race, and several high-profile Republicans are running.

May 22 — Constitutional deadline for the legislative session to end.

June 1-3 — State Republican Convention at Minneapolis Convention Center. This is when the party endorses its gubernatorial and U.S. Senate candidates.

June 9-11 — State DFL convention in Rochester.

July 4-18 — The filing period with the secretary of state’s office for the primary and general election.

Sept. 12 — Primary Election Day.

Nov. 7 — Election Day.