Minnesota Poll: Show of support for Pawlenty

10/03/2007

Enjoying his highest approval ratings in four years, Gov. Tim Pawlenty has weathered a politically stormy summer.


By Mark Brunswick,
Star Tribune
October 03, 2007


Gov. Tim Pawlenty appears to have weathered some of the most tumultuous events of his tenure, with 59 percent of Minnesota adults approving of the job he is doing as governor, a new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll shows. It is his highest approval rating in the poll since February 2003, shortly after he took office.

Despite frequent combat with the DFL-dominated Legislature, the recent horror of a bridge collapse on his watch and questions about the state's response to flooding in southeastern Minnesota, Republican Pawlenty's strong approval rating cut across gender, regional and age lines.

Meanwhile, Minnesotans are almost evenly split on the job being done by the Legislature, with 43 percent approving and 39 percent disapproving.

The poll, conducted Sept. 18 to 23 for the Star Tribune, surveyed 802 Minnesotans and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The error margin is larger for subgroups.

The poll was conducted after the Aug. 1 collapse of the Interstate 35W bridge and flooding that ravaged portions of southeastern Minnesota. It also was conducted after Pawlenty called a one-day special legislative session to deal with flood relief.

Men and women were about equal in approving of Pawlenty's performance. The highest approval level came from 18- to 39-year-olds, with more than six out of 10 approving. Among respondents older than 60, 53 percent approved.

Distance from Bush

Pawlenty appears to have effectively distanced himself from President Bush. Among Democrats and those who described themselves as leaning Democratic, 41 percent approved of the job Pawlenty was doing, compared with only 7 percent who approved of Bush's job performance.

That Pawlenty has not been tagged more heavily with responsibility for the bridge collapse or swept along in the national Republican troubles is a testament to his political skills, said Joseph Peschek, chair of the political science department at Hamline University.

"I'm a little bit surprised that he has not taken a hit. I wouldn't have been surprised if he had," Peschek said. "The fact that his poll numbers are pretty steady would seem to suggest that Minnesotans aren't blaming him personally for Minnesota problems, particularly the Minnesota transportation system and the bridge collapse."

Peschek said Pawlenty is well-spoken, with a positive message to the public.

"He's a good politician, and he's been playing on relatively positive ground in the last couple of years," Peschek said. "Minnesota Democrats and Minnesotans in general don't perceive him as part of the right-wing crack-up."

Pawlenty's lowest approval ratings came a few months following a 2003 special legislative session and while the Legislature was in session in 2003.

"We're pleased that Minnesotans approve of the job Governor Pawlenty's doing," said Pawlenty spokesman Brian McClung. "It shows that a strong majority back the governor's message of holding government accountable, setting priorities and living within our means. Polls go up and down -- we're always focused on doing what's right for Minnesota."

Minnesotans have given Pawlenty the benefit of the doubt, believing that he is working in the best interest of the state, said Chris Gilbert, a political science professor at Gustavus Adolphus College in St. Peter, Minn.

"In today's political age, that is gold," Gilbert said. Broad-stroke efforts often mean more than policy specifics when it comes to public perception, he added, and Pawlenty has performed well in the public theater, particularly after the bridge collapse and floods.

"He came off as doing exactly what a governor should do, the intervention appeared quick, it appeared decisive and it appeared like something was being done," Gilbert said. "The overall impression outweighs any specific concerns that Democrats and others might want to toss out there."

The DFL view

Assistant Senate Majority Leader Tarryl Clark, whose DFL caucus has been one of the most aggressive of Pawlenty's critics, acknowledged that Pawlenty may come across well but that deeper questions need to be asked about his policies.

"He's an affable guy. He communicates in a very nice way. When people hear him talk he sounds reasonable but they are not hearing the whole story from him," she said. "If a poll asked about his policies, you would see very different numbers."

Clark also was dismissive of the approval ratings for the Legislature, saying people generally give low numbers to legislatures and Congress but think more highly of their own elected representatives.

Poll respondent John Marden, 42, of Minneapolis, said he approves of Pawlenty because he did not support the idea of immediately increasing taxes in the aftermath of the bridge collapse. A libertarian, Marden said he actually doesn't believe Pawlenty is conservative enough in keeping the size of government down.

"I agree with his pledge to not increase taxes at the drop of a hat," Marden said. "He has shown leadership from the perspective of not just jumping on the raising-taxes-bandwagon, but is looking for the solution to the real problems. The Legislature is trying to blame Pawlenty for the problem, when it's all of our problem."

Poll respondent Charles Arnold, 64, of Prior Lake, disapproved of Pawlenty and the Legislature, pointing to transportation stalemates as an example of what he said was a situation that has become too polarized. A Minnesota resident all his life, Arnold said the failure to compromise appears to be a recent phenomenon that is not good for the state.

"It seems every issue they deal with, they have to wait until the very end of the session to get anything done. Because neither side is willing to give, a lot of things don't get passed. It's 'my way is the only way' type of thing," he said.