Minnesota Poll: Swanson leads attorney general race

09/20/2006

Conrad Defiebre, Star Tribune
Last update: September 20, 2006 – 12:14 AM

Relatively few voters know who any of the candidates in the state attorney general election race are, but DFLer Lori Swanson has grabbed a wide early lead over her rivals, according to the latest Star Tribune Minnesota Poll.

Swanson had the support of 46 percent of respondents in the poll, conducted Sept. 13 through Friday, just after she won a tight three-way primary election for the DFL nomination to be Minnesota’s top legal officer.

Republican Jeff Johnson garnered 28 percent, John James of the Independence Party 6 percent and the Green Party’s Papa John Kolstad 2 percent.

But while Swanson’s early strength might be no surprise in a state that has given the DFL a lock on attorney general elections since 1970, the numbers offer no guarantee that she will win on Nov. 7.

Nearly seven weeks remain in the campaign, and Tuesday may have been a preview of what’s to come when Swanson and Johnson attacked each other’s record on public safety and gave differing views on the death penalty in dueling State Capitol news conferences.

Such issues could well swing the 18 percent of likely voters in the poll who voiced no support for anyone on the ballot for attorney general.

An even clearer indication of the fluidity of this race came in the poll’s finding of weak name identification for all the candidates. Swanson was the best known, with only 32 percent recognition—14 points less than her support.

The candidates were identified to poll respondents with party labels, and the results suggest that many voters are reacting more to partisan affiliations than to personalities in the race.

Johnson also got more support than his name recognition of 23 percent. The other candidates were less known still: 11 percent for James, a former state revenue commissioner, and 17 percent for Kolstad, a longtime folk singer and music promoter.

Swanson, making her first run for elective office after years as a top aide to current Attorney General Mike Hatch, said her lead in the poll could reflect her fresh victory in a well-publicized primary. But, she added: “I’m encouraged. I think the voters are pretty intuitive.”

Johnson, a three-term state representative from Plymouth who faced token opposition in the primary, said he expected an even worse showing in such an early poll.

“I’m not shocked,” he said. “But it just doesn’t tell you anything when most people don’t know who either candidate is. Hopefully, the voters will make their decisions with more information than they have now.”

Swanson, of Eagan, led the poll in every demographic group but three: Republicans, conservatives and those who believe the state is headed in the right direction. Johnson took those categories, with support from nearly seven of 10 Republicans, 56 percent of conservatives and 44 percent of those who think the state is doing well.

Almost nine of 10 Democrats backed Swanson, who also led the field among independents with 35 percent support to Johnson’s 20 percent and James’ 10 percent. In addition, she was the pick of half the self-described moderates.

Campaign themes

On Tuesday, both Johnson and Swanson used the same word to label what the other has done to public safety efforts: “decimated.”

Johnson said Swanson was part of a Hatch executive team that requested reduced funding from the Legislature for law enforcement work in the attorney general’s office.

Swanson said Johnson voted for such cuts and more as a House member.

“He’s like the arsonist who starts the fire, calls the media and then blames the fire department for taking too long to put it out,” she said.

Johnson acknowledged that legislators “cut across the board” to erase a $4.5 billion projected budget deficit in 2003, but added that “everything has been restored.” Still, he said, county attorneys across Minnesota “are not getting the appeals help they need” from the attorney general’s lawyers.

Swanson presented figures showing that the office handled 147 criminal appeals for outstate prosecutors in 2005, up from 114 in 1998. She also said the office has added eight staffers assigned to law enforcement since 1998, more than doubled its homicide prosecutions and nearly doubled its drunken-driving cases.

Meanwhile, Johnson, citing his concern for his two young sons, called for the death penalty for sexual predators who murder children. “I’m a strong believer in second chances, and in some cases third and fourth chances, but not if you rape and kill a kid,” he said.

Swanson said she would support a death penalty if it had adequate safeguards against executing the innocent. Capital punishment has been outlawed in Minnesota for nearly a century. Restoring it would require approval of the Legislature and governor. The attorney general has only an advisory role on such issues.

In addition, Johnson called for global positioning tracking devices to be affixed to all medium- and high-risk sex offenders upon their release from prison, and for expansion of the state’s Internet Crimes Against Children Task Force in the Bureau of Criminal Apprehension. Johnson said he secured $1 million for that effort in the past legislative session.

Swanson urged restoration of the statewide Gang Strike Force, whose functions were merged into drug task forces with the support of Johnson and other Republicans. The two differed over whether the remaining effort covers the whole state now.

And, echoing proposals from Hatch, the DFL gubernatorial nominee, Swanson said that the state and federal governments should reverse funding cuts that led to reductions in local police forces.