Next Generation Hybrid Cars

02/21/2006

Paul Munnis

Next generation hybrid cars are coming and no they are not a complete redesign of existing hybrids. Instead they build upon the existing hybrid cars in an evolutionary fashion but they add a key new feature: rechargeable batteries sufficient for a 40 mile per day trip around and about the community that you live in.

The other big news feature concerning hybrids is low cost high volume manufacturing to meet demand while holding down the cost of the car to the buyer.

For most people the 40 mile electric capacity is enough to get to work and run and errand or two and then get home with the other half of the power intact to where the car can be plugged in for use the next day. When it’s time to take the family on an out of town trip, the hybrid engine is started up and away they go using a combination of gasoline and regenerative power. Total use for town and country is averaging 100 mpg on the new prototype units.

Already such cars are showing up in places like California where automobile aficionados are building their own by just retrofitting existing hybrid autos. Many of the early hybrids have aluminum bodies and are built really tough thus giving them a long term life-span.

The Catch 22 lies in the batteries. They are expensive as heck and if you let them get too run down before you recharge them then you cut their useful life down by as much as half. Present third generation battery additions average $2100 per vehicle.

Unless a long life, low cost, light weight battery design is soon found, then the 100 mpg generation hybrid car will remain elusive for mass production. The present batteries are heavy and hauling them about is expensive in terms of energy consumption not to mention that trunk space is also lost to the added battery storage.

So the issue is not next generation hybrids the real problem is making a better battery. The person who can resolve this conundrum may well be the next Bill Gates billionaire and inventor. Many industries seek better and longer life batteries to power everything from wrist-watches to submarines.

Now it’s time for good old Yankee Ingenuity to go to work. Will you be the next inventor to patent a better mouse trap? Ah, best make that: “better battery.”

The Chinese are taking this matter very seriously and they are pouring needed research money into the quest. Environmental Protection Electric Vehicle Research and Development Center in Shenzhen, China became fully operational on November 18, 2001.

Since then the center has retained 21 researchers and other staff members who are currently working on a second generation electric battery for use in Minghua’s hybrid vehicles. These research professionals come from well-known Chinese universities and automobile manufacturers such as Tsinghua University, Jilin University of Technology, China No. 1 Auto Group, and China No. 2 Auto Group.

The research and development center is a new hi-tech enterprise that unites Chinese and foreign government, manufacturing, university and research groups.  The research and development center is led by Professor C.  C. Chan, President of the World Electric Vehicle Association, academician with the Chinese Academy of Engineering, academician with the British Royal Academy of Engineering, academician with the Churchill School of Cambridge University, and President of the Hong Kong Institution of Engineers.

Will the patent holder for a better battery be Chinese, Japanese, American, or European? We don’t know yet but it is clear that the engineering race is on.

Ford is headed for a third generation hybrid car. According to Ford, the transaxle, engineered in Dearborn, MI, will be capable of handling both four-cylinder and six-cylinder engines for future vehicles.

The automaker also unveiled a new 3.5-liter V-6 engine and six-speed automatic transaxle for use in two soon-to-be-released crossover utility vehicle (CUV) offerings. Ford is playing catch-up ball with the Japanese.

Another problem is holding down manufacturing cost, assuring profit, and making the cars affordable for the public.

Toyota has unveiled its new second generation hybrid and has built new high speed auto assembly lines. The latest Prius model is equipped with automated steering to help curbside and back-in parking. The driver does not have to touch the steering wheel for the car to park itself.

Visual comparisons with the production method for the previous Prius, launched in late 1997, are difficult since journalists were never allowed to visit the assembly site.

But the numbers speak for themselves: The current Prius assembly line rolls out about one car every minute, versus one every eight to 10 minutes previously.

“This is proof that mass production of the Prius has started in earnest,” Takahara said.

The domination of the American car market is now within the grasp of the Japanese as GM is missing a hybrid line of cars in a time of increasing demand while Ford expects to have to build the cars at a loss in order to enter the market.

Toyota is aiming to sell 76,000 units of the new Prius a year globally, with 36,000 of them in Japan. Actual sales of the previous Prius hit 28,000 units last year.

But the sales target is already looking extremely conservative. Toyota said Thursday that orders in Japan reached 17,500 units—more than five times the company’s target of 3,000—in the first month. In the United States, where the new Prius goes on sale this month, orders topped 10,000 in one month as of September 24, 2005.

Reflecting the new model’s popularity, every other car on the five-model assembly line at the Tsutsumi plant is a Prius.

In contrast, according to Wired News the rival Honda says low volumes are forcing it to practically hand-build its Insight hybrid model, much like its NSX and S-2000 sports cars. Japan’s second-largest automaker admits that after four years of selling hybrids, it barely makes any profit on them.

Nevertheless, Toyota’s feat in mass-producing its hybrid car should be an encouraging sign for other rivals as they follow Japan’s top two automakers into the market. When you consider that they will be licensing their technology to others, the future appears bright for Toyota.

Alan Dursowitz, author of Day Creek Journal owns a used Toyota first generation hybrid car and he commutes often from Chicago, Illinois to LaCrescent, MN, where he is building an imaginative cordwood home. He recently wrote an editorial on gasoline consumption and he closes it with the following observation:

To end this rant, I will now gloat a little. My fuel mileage driving from Minnesota to Illinois doing between 60 and 65 MPH, with a tail wind and following behind a few trucks who actually do the speed limit netted me an average MPG of 87 for a distance of 263 miles. That’s only 3 gallons of gas to drive 260 miles!

Below is a digital photo of his energy consumption gage on the Prius to substantiate this claim.

Imagine what a next generation hybrid will offer.