Patience with Iraq

04/08/2008

Paul Munnis


Generals tend to think in terms of wins and losses. They also seldom create a plan without it containing strategic components. So when General Petraeus appears before Congress and advocates patience in Iraq he might be doing Democrats a big, big, favor.

What he will be saying is that he advocates that 140,000 pairs of American boots be on the ground in Iraq when the voters go to the polls in November. They will be there because the GOP brought them there and the GOP kept them there. General Petraeus will have set the tone for the national vote and it should come out solidly anti-GOP. So much so that Republicans may become an extinct species.

As fishermen know “Patience has its own reward.”

There are other advantages to this from a General’s perspective too. For example, if the American people, through the electoral process, demand the troops come home from Iraq, after the election then the General is relieved of the burden of having to win a decisive military campaign. We will have left Iraq by demand of the electorate and not because we lost any major battles. The troops thus come home heroic and will have their backs to Iraq. The General will have performed wonderfully and the military will get the funds to rebuild.

Yup, patience will pay off for the military alright.

What about the geo-politics of the mid-east?

By yanking the troops out of the mid-east the American people will be sending two key messages to them. The first is that “there is no peace-keeper so if you want to survive then you had better figure out how to get along.” The second is to Israel. “Better speed up making peace with Palestine for there will be no Calvary just over the hill to come to the rescue.”

So it seems to me that the November election draws a firm political line in the sand for the mid-east.

What about the oil?

There are several considerations here. First the military is working very hard to assure that when they rebuild and equip they have cut their energy dependence way down. Consider the all nuclear Navy and the accelerated Air Force studies of alternative ways to power aircraft. The Army itself needs to procure lighter and more efficient ways to move Armies and keep them in a theater of operations without heavy dependence on oil supplies. As for Iraqi oil America will buy it on the spot market and if Democrats are serious about alternative energy then they will be lowering demand for mid-east oil and that will lower the U.S. oil bill and cut the oil import deficit. In the process oil prices will drop and the dollar will strengthen.

What about troop losses between now and then? The rate of losses has come down and the outcome of this chess game between al Maliki and al Sadr will determine if peace comes to Iraq. If it does, then the military will take the credit and reap the benefits of lower casualties. If it doesn’t, then 140,000 pairs of boots will be dug-in and ready for combat. In a frontal war America will not lose for we have substantial assets to bring to the battlefield.

So all in all, patience at this point is probably good advice to the American people. Our patience will certainly not help the GOP win the election.

If I were a Presidential candidate I think that I’d work General Petreaus over in the hearings but not so hard as to do anything except to make it appear that Bush’s insistence on staying in Iraq is another of the many GOP blunders. In other words I’d let Bush win the battle and as a result I’d win the war.

As for McCain, let him honk his horn for staying on in Iraq. That will seal his fate at the polls for sure.

I think the General is setting up a win-win situation for America and for Democrats in Iraq.