Russia, Mr. Putin, the World, and Mr. Bush’s Diplomacy

02/13/2007

Paul Munnis


Russia’s Putin has spoken in rather clear and undiplomatic terms that he sees the U.S. as a war monger nation without good intentions, a nation that is no longer a factor for good on the world scene, and a major part of creating the world’s problems. What’s more we are interfering with trade.

Gates tried to fend it off with spy jokes but its no laughing matter. For Mr. Putin to speak this way there is something really angering him.

That something is G.W. Bush. To anyone who has watched the relationship deteriorate between these two over the past five years it has become clear that Mr. Putin is disgusted with Mr. Bush.

Setting aside the personal level of angst we look to diplomatic reasons and there are sure plenty of them. Let’s start with oil.

Russia needs to sell oil and natural gas to earn foreign currency. It has nationalized the Russian oil industry and Mr. Putin wants to be the supplier of oil and gas to all of Europe. Like many beginners he screwed up by using oil as a weapon of diplomacy. In so doing he has made the capitol cities of Europe sit up and notice that he can’t be relied upon when the political situation deteriorates between nations. Since differences of opinion are likely between governments over time this is bad news for Europe and they are cool to buying oil and natural gas from Russia. Bush has rubbed Russia’s face in it in international circles and the result is anger by the Russians. They really need the foreign currency and to understand Russia these days you need to understand little more than their need for foreign currency.

Iran is yet another issue. Bush is acting very provocative with Iran right now and Putin is letting Bush know that he doesn’t buy into the provocation. Most people know that Iran is a paper tiger right now with nukes. They know that Iran has been reined in a lot at the UN and their assets frozen and their credit staunched. They also know that there are more steps that the UN can and will take if Iran doesn’t cool it. Russia doesn’t want to go back to the Cold War and they will not act crazy but they need to communicate to Mr. Bush and to the world that they are disgusted with Mr. Bush’s behavior. At the same time Russia needs foreign currency and Iran is buying centrifuges and other goodies and Russia wants to sell to them. We want t see that trade stopped and it probably should be but its adding to Russia’s angst.

Iraq is another sore spot and Putin made clear to any who would listen that Mr. Bush has committed illegal acts of aggression against Iraq, has violated all of the Geneva accords with respect to human rights, and that as far as Russia is concerned Mr. Bush is on a very slippery slope. This is bad news for Mr. Bush because Russia is likely to push in the UN for charges of Human Rights violations against Mr. Bush when the time is right.

In that sense Mr. Putin hasn’t said anything about the Bush Administration that 70% of America and 90% of the rest of the world isn’t also saying. The whole world is disgusted with Mr. Bush and Mr. Putin is speaking for his nation which he has a right and an obligation to do. We Americans do not have to agree with him but we should be careful about blowing him off.

Gates has tried to diffuse the tension with laughter. When he gets to Russia he could find though that these things are not viewed as being very funny.