Sizing Up 2008 Politics

09/27/2007

2008 politics are pivotal at the State legislative level and will set the course for the next Biennium or longer


Paul Munnis


As we look to the 2008 election race we note a number of things of interest to Democrats:

At the Federal level: As long as Tim Walz keeps his nose clean he will likely ride a Democratic ticket back to the U.S. House.

His opponents are weak and mostly negative on the issues.

Bachmann and Klein, both Republicans, are already being targeted by the DFL and there is a pretty good chance they will be ousted because they represent policies that are failed yet they still cling to them.

Also targeted is Senator Norm Coleman. He is still running pretty good right now according to the polls, yet he is badly threatened by an image of being Bush’s lap-dog. Once the DFL has done its endorsement and gets behind a candidate (Franken or Cersi) then things can only get worse for Coleman. In years past Coleman had Bush and Chaney stumping for him, now they are a poison pill in any campaign bid.

At a local level in Rochester, the DFL has not named a candidate to run against State Senator Senjem.

Tina Liebling is looking solid to win again in the Minnesota House race.

State Senator Ann Lynch is looking solid in her District too.

Both Rep.s Andy Welti and Kim Norton will be watched closely in this 2008 session to see how they vote and perform under stress.

The State Representative seat occupied by Randy Demmer seems to be in play as Demmer runs against Tim Walz for Congress. So far no DFL candidate has been chosen to run for Demmer’s seat. That western part of District 29 is increasingly active in Byron, Kasson, and Dodge Counties and it is likely that a candidate will emerge from one of those communities.

Rochester is the location for the DFL State Convention this year and it promises to be a lively time. A lot of heavy politics will be played out as candidates seek endorsement and issues become focused.

The DFL will be asked to take sides on the issue of rail haulage in SE Minnesota and will likely avoid a position on the matter since it is a no win situation with farmers wanting more rail service and urbanites wanting less and preferably no rail traffic.

At the State Legislature this year many topics of interest to State residents will surface including Health Care for State residents.

With Wisconsin putting forward a heavy agenda for healthcare insurance, Minnesota is challenged to meet Wisconsin or else risk businesses moving across the State line.

Also Transportation, taxing policy, and revenue sources are very big issues.

It is clear that Minnesota has a cash-flow problem, is challenged with a number of big projects, that many in the State are disgusted with the “Borrow and Spend,” approach to government and want a “Pay As You Go,” system of taxation.

Also the State will have to react to a variety of Federal initiatives which will financially impact us.

All across the State the infrastructure is under pressure for upgrade, replacement, or development in areas of water, sewage, roads, bridges, and State owned buildings.

Energy development, supply, and costs will be a major concern for mid-westerners as energy costs rise and the cost of government and home energy costs all reflect it.

Another likely issue is development of the Upper Mississippi Basin for shipping and will require Federal and State matching funds.

But it is Education that is the snake hiding in the grass waiting to bite legislators.

Everyone wants more and better education but there is a cash-flow problem at the State level and unless new revenue sources are discovered then it will be a case of tight wallets for rural schools with urban schools having to pass local levy’s for themselves against a pretty well fixed property tax base. With the hosing issues confronting America today new growth in housing is unlikely in any substantial numbers. Rural schools may face more consolidation as needs outstrip revenue. Also, if home price values decline then the tax rate may have to climb to offset lost tax revenue.

Finding new revenue sources to match the needs of the State is paramount to the up-coming legislative session and will be a major challenge for Tim Pawlenty and for DFL House leaders.

Thus 2008 is shaping up to be a challenging year in politics across Minnesota.