The Fear Factor in Iraqi and American Politics

01/23/2006

Paul Munnis

The NY Times has produced an analysis by Dexter Filkens concerning the Iraqi War. It can be read under Articles of Interest - Political in TRD. The title is: “Iraqis Urging Unity, but Rifts May Be Too Deep.” The assertion of this analysis is that religious factionalism will cause Iraq to fail to produce a strong central government and that civil war will result.

There is a different analysis and viewpoint possible; one that recognizes the role that fear plays both in Iraq and at home.

Consider the following:

1. What ends wars is war weariness in the lives of the people. War weariness triumphs over national politics and shapes political agendas. War weariness is when people are sick and tired of war and demand peace. Iraq has war weariness right now and the majority of the people of Iraq want to build a unified and peaceful nation. America can build upon Iraqi war weariness. We are seeing growing evidence of American war weariness too and Democrats can build upon that to help end the Iraqi war.

2. A few religious and political factions are preventing Iraqi unity from happening and it can result in a purge where there is a wicked social reaction to those who oppose peace and thus the majority populace turns upon them and routes out war hawks and foreign insurgents. These are called “pogroms” and the history of the world is full of examples of religious and political pogroms. The Sunnis are a minority and they must be made to fear such a possibility will happen to them if they do not unite.

3. We can see that among the people of Iraq there is a desire for peace and unity and that only a piece of paper (the Iraqi Constitution) and a spirit of goodwill among religious factions is preventing peace and unity from being achieved among Iraqi’s. That recognition could lead to national unity all by itself. I am surprised that Islamic leaders have not called for an end to religious factionalism. The solution is “Separation of Church and State.” Democrats should be attacking the GOP over their failure to sponsor this solution in Iraq. Our Democratic strategists are not on top of Iraq these days and needs to refocus. The obvious Democratic Party attack is that the GOP does not believe in the principles of “Separation of Church and State” and that this leads to a lack of social unity in a pluralistic society - witness Iraq. And the lack of Separation is also bad for America - witness the GOP political wedge issues and their divisiveness to American domestic unity and tranquility.

4. We can see that across the Arab States there are a good number of Sunni, many in Saudi Arabia, the next door neighbors of Iraq. These are people with deep pockets who can buy and sell whole armies. All they have to do is say: “If Shiites do not give Sunni’s freedom and opportunity we will make it bad for Iraq Shiites.” Iraqi leaders will then “get it.”

5. If you look at a map of Africa it is clear that 8.4 million Africans are starving to death in Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, and elsewhere along the Northeast coastline. This is caused by drought. If they decide that can eat and drink if they go to Iraq and to raid and pillage then there will be a stampede to kill Iraqi’s without regard to religious affiliations that is sickening to watch. A perception is needed that Iraqi’s need to set aside religious differences and to unite in order to keep hungry African tribesmen out of Iraq. Iraqis need to have a vision that it would be like a herd of locusts invading and that Iraq will disappear in a cloud of dust. Invaders are held back by strong Armies and Iraq needs one to survive in a hostile world. The U.S. could remission itself to provide border security while the Iraq Army provides for domestic social peace.

The U.S. is feeding the people of Iraq. For the most part they are on U.S. welfare. If we tell them that we will stop feeding them unless they unite and form a meaningful government and then show them that we really mean it, then they will just keep on with the status quo. Political disagreement is a luxury that comes after the necessities of life are met. The new leaders of Iraq haven’t had to face the real responsibilities of government nor has the U.S. Army exercised their real muscle to demand peace. The emphasis has been on war instead. The new government is now forming and its time to lay the burden of government on them. One of those burdens is a need to feed people.

There is therefore good reason to think that the Shiite clerics and religious seniors could be motivated to turn pragmatic and to decide that half a loaf is better than none. But the U.S. may have to play hardball by promoting a vision of what hunger and chaos would be liek if the Iraqi’s do not unite as a people.

Frankly, Bush isn’t using the fear factor very well to motivate the Iraqi’s to national unity. He is letting the Iraqi’s be lazy and fey about protecting their territory from invasion. The U.S. troop presence allows Iraqi leaders to ignore the threat of foreign invasion. U.S. welfare allows Iraqi religious factionalism to be placed ahead of national survival.

Note that Iran has a countervailing Shiite army that could invade Iraq and thus cause even more war and deaths. Only when the U.S. says: “We’re gradually leaving,” will all of these threats become real to Iraqi’s and make them think that peace is their best option and that unity is a mandate for survival. 

Thus I agree with Rep. Jack Murtha that the biggest enemy to peace is the continued presence of the US Army in Iraq. It is time for us to announce a plan to train and then to withdraw to border patrol and then withdraw to neighboring countries like Afghanistan and Kuwait giving peace a chance in Iraq. Our troops could then be given a new mission and stay on standby alert to help out Iraq. We could clean up Afghanistan before coming back home if we feel a need to keep an Army in the region for stability.

Even the GOP can see that to stay on in Iraq is to politically risk it all unnecessarily. At this point I have raised the odds to be 50-50 in favor of peace in Iraq. Just a month ago I had it at 60-40 for civil war.

As much as I disagree with Dick Chaney I do think he is a strong pragmatist. If he decides to step aside - it’ll happen. If he stays hawkish then there will be more blood spilled. I think that Chaney is calling the shots on Iraq.

Dick Cheney clearly sees that the GOP is risking two decades of ignominy over the Iraqi War if the American public decides that they have lost Iraq and that this is a growing political perception among the GOP faithful. Chaney can also see it is not going well for his Party overall politically and that Iraq is 65% of his problem. He might decide that he has to shift and to adjust the GOP position on Iraq in order for the GOP to have a viable political future. Democrats need to help him reinforce that realization as a part of our role as “The Loyal Opposition.”

I look to a new pragmatism from the Bush Administration over the next 45 days where Iraq is concerned. They are walking on very thin and slippery ice. I think Chaney may decide to salvage what he can or to at least lower the risks to the GOP. Chaney’s problem is managing people like Billy Kristol. Without them aboard then Chaney and Bush loose their mandate to govern. Chaney needs an inside of the GOP Party strategy in order to manage Iraq. So far the neo-con right is controlling the Party and they are supporting continued war at all costs. He cannot manage Iraq until he gets that because it requires a strategy different than occupation. 

We Democrats should want a good solution to this mess. We need a peaceful Iraq in order to have the resources to govern America. We cannot afford to keep sending $160 Billion per year to Iraq and Afghanistan. We need to get our Army home and to redo the U.S. military budget for modernization and to equip them properly for the era of guerilla warfare. We need to cut the U.S. deficit. We need other national priorities met. The Iraq War is a draq on our Democratic future too.

You can’t go there until you give peace a chance and make Iraqi’s fear even more war to be a likely if they don’t unite for peace. We need to turn up the heat on the GOP to get off the fence post on Iraq too. Rep. Jack Murtha has the ball rolling but others need to dovetail strong ideas with his to create a new climate for Iraqi war resolution.

Our loyal opposition of Democrats has lots more work to do before this Iraq War will end.