The pace quickens in governor’s race
10/27/2006
Two weeks to go, and the contest remains a squeaker. Here are some educated guesses as to why that’s so.
Bob Von Sternberg,
Star Tribune
Last update: October 26, 2006 – 10:17 PM
Embarking on a final, two-week campaign swing across Minnesota, Gov. Tim Pawlenty lashed out Thursday at his leading challenger, DFL Attorney General Mike Hatch, over Hatch’s latest TV ad.
“Minnesotans deserve better,” Pawlenty said, alleging that Hatch may have broken campaign laws with his spot, which was itself a response to a Pawlenty ad about illegal immigration.
With Nov. 7 looming, Pawlenty was doing what supporters, foes and political observers say he needs to do to pull ahead of Hatch. He was going on the offensive and challenging Hatch to react.
Hatch, for his part, was courting sportsmen in Duluth and on the Iron Range on Thursday, shoring up support in a crucial DFL stronghold and among a constituency where Pawlenty is popular.
In response to Pawlenty’s charge, Hatch fired back that the governor was “whining.”
With polls showing the race somewhere between a dead heat and a slight lead for Hatch, and with the time to election day dwindling, the gubernatorial candidates are picking up the pace. Pawlenty, Hatch and Independence Party nominee Peter Hutchinson are covering more mileage on the ground and battling aggressively on the airwaves.
This week Pawlenty started a tour in a new campaign van to visit scores of cities during a 14-day sprint. Hatch is on a bus tour of his own. And Hutchinson was conducting radio interviews Thursday as well as meeting with an interchurch social action organization.
In addition, the three candidates will converge three more times for debates. The next one is Sunday night in St. Paul and it will be broadcast on KSTP-TV.
Retail politics
Assessing the race so far, the Republican and Democratic publishers of the Politics in Minnesota weekly newsletter agree that Hatch so far has run a smart campaign.
“I’ve been pretty shocked that there have been no missteps by Hatch,” said Sarah Janecek, the Republican in the team. “A lot of people expected him to blow up by now. He should keep doing the same thing he’s been doing, nice positive ads. Keep that smile on, Mike.
“The biggest tragedy in this campaign is that Tim has let people forget he’s a really nice guy. His strength is retail politics, so he should be out there meeting and greeting 16 hours a day.”
DFLer Blois Olson’s take: “Mike’s run a nearly perfect campaign, not made any gaffes, rarely lost his temper publicly.
“Pawlenty’s talked too much about the past, and not what he’ll do in the future. He’s got to make Mike Hatch react to him. And Pawlenty has to get out of what seems like a funk. He should get out there more.”
Charlie Weaver, the governor’s former chief of staff and now an informal adviser, said Pawlenty’s two-week road trip “will play to his strength, meeting people, getting local ... media [coverage]. Being out there, being himself, will give him a tailwind.”
The relative absence of Pawlenty on the campaign trail until now was a necessity born of the fact that he has spent two months fundraising to counter independent-expenditure ads targeting him, Weaver said.
A challenge for Pawlenty now is to avoid serious damage from the growing anti-Republican sentiment detected nationwide by pollsters. “Most obviously, the national tidal wave is overtaking everything,” Weaver said. “It’s deep, broad, strong and not abating and there’s no question it’s affecting the governor.”
Former Gov. Wendell Anderson, a Hatch adviser, said though Pawlenty and Hatch “differ on so many issues, they’ve got the similarity that both are very effective campaigners, both very bright. I think it’s going to be very close.”
Pawlenty ‘not the only one’
The national political handicapping services are currently rating Minnesota’s gubernatorial race as even. In the past month, the Cook Political Report moved it from “leans Republican” to “toss up.”
Jennifer Duffy, one of the report’s editors, said the erosion in Pawlenty’s position stems from the fact that “in a race that was closer than most people thought it would be, Pawlenty didn’t have much of a cushion when all Republicans have started to see their numbers going down. He’s sure not the only one.”
The Cook current ratings show that of the 22 Republican governors up for reelection, nine are rated as tossups or leaning Democratic. Of the 14 Democratic seats, only four are tossups and none lean Republican.
Hitting the road
In the remaining days of the campaign, “our focus is going to be the grass roots, out traveling the state every moment we can,” said Pawlenty’s spokesman, Brian McClung. “It’s accurate to say that’s the governor’s strength: Let people see Tim Pawlenty.”
On Hatch’s extended bus tour, Jon Youngdahl, campaign manager, said: “He’s not going to change his message. He’s going to stay positive.”
And what of Hutchinson, who has remained mired in the single digits of support measured by every recent statewide poll?
“We’re going to run a new ad, some new print materials, but Peter’s fundamental message isn’t going to change,” said campaign spokeswoman Melenie Soucheray. “We look forward to the last three debates, because people will start paying attention when we get closer to the election.”