The Russian Bear and Mr. Bush

10/18/2007

Paul Munnis


The courting of Iran by Moscow seems pretty odd indeed. They seem like an unlikely duo. Russia has a major task for itself: improve their cash flow, grow the strength of their Ruble, sell oil and natural gas to Europe, and do all this while minimizing their investment in their military and avoiding foreign adventures. For Russia it’s a time of trade harmony and Ruble pinching.

Iran is a nation running on empty. They are resource starved. They are running out of oil. They have no refinery system and they must import gasoline. They are under world sanctions further squeezing them while their monetary unit is now not even accepted in most world-trade situations. Iranian youth is discouraged and wants Iran to come into the modern world and to help create a future for them. The government is stymied by religious zealots who deny the Iranian people economic prosperity. They are building a nuclear power plant and that should not be a bother to anyone but their avowed hatred of Jews creates a concern that nuclear power will lead to nuclear weapons and that these will be used to kill Jews. That is unacceptable to the whole world -- including Russia. Their anti-Jewish hatred is killing Iran and the backlash will stifle Iran if it’s allowed to continue

So why the sudden love affair by Russia in defense of Iran?

Yes, Russia has been on the short straw and has suffered as a result. Yes, their ego is bruised over the fall of Communism but there is no turning back on that and life is improving for Russians as a result. They are past the worst of the change-over. There is disquiet over a change in Russia government heads and a concern that a government change will create an opportunity for revolution. Putin is also a target for assassination by the Ukrainians. There is a fear that Putin will revert to Stalinist times – but that fear seem pretty groundless and taken even in the aggregate does not provide a motive for Russia to support Iran.

There is little in this for Russia except some short term cash-flow maybe for processing and selling nuclear fuel and equipment to Iran and getting guaranteed payment from Iran is no small task. After that trade stops then they are stuck with Iran as a bed-partner for a long time to come.

It makes little sense and even less sense when you look at it from a Socialism viewpoint. As Communists then Russia would want to be rid of Iranian religious influence. As Socialists they would also want prosperity for the people of Iran, something the current Iranian government does not aspire to but that the Iranian youth wants badly. As Capitalists they would want to exploit Iran but they are giving no overtures to that effect.

The only explanation I can come up with is that they do not trust Bush, they want to rein him in, they want to prevent war in that neck of the woods, and they are using Russia’s strength and power to do it. They have checkmated Chaney and Bush as a result and they are also simpatico with the youth of Iran thus giving the youth of Iran a chance to change things. Also, I note that Putin has been cooling a lot towards Bush and using a combination of sarcasm and ridicule to show how he really feels about Dubya.

So I think it’s a chess game played to keep the Bushies in check. It’s working pretty well too.

Am I wrong? Email me at and sound-off.