Iraqi War Truth Table

04/10/2007

Paul Munnis


Sometime around the seventh grade we were introduced to truth tables. These are a convenient way to array facts concerning an issue and then to determine the truth of the matter. Our math teacher made us perform truth tables on Court testimony to see what a jury outcome would be. We built the tables and then our class was spot-on at predicting the jury findings.

Here is what we find as we construct truth tables for continuing the War in Iraq:

Chaos Assertion

Bush Point: Bush claims that if we pull out of Iraq then the sectarian violence will flare up killing more Iraqi’s.

Truth Elements: The Iraqi’s are already involved in chaotic killing and violence and they are killing one another at a rate of about 100 per day. If we pull out the killing will continue.

The critical difference: when we pull out the killing of American soldiers in Iraq will stop (about 3 per day now).

It is possible that other mid-east nations representing Shiite and Sunni factions will act to restrain the warring parties since it could mean civil war for them if they don’t.

Military Impact of a Pullout from Iraq

Bush Point: Bush claims Democrats will not be supporting the troops if we pull them out of Iraq. He says that we will have wasted all of those who were killed in combat to build a Democratic Iraq.

Truth Elements: Our military is decimated, understaffed, poorly staffed, poorly lead, and badly equipped.

We keep hearing Bush say that our troops are performing superbly yet we are not winning the war in Iraq just as we did not win the war in Vietnam. That means the troops are not performing well and since we have nobody else representing us in Iraq it must be the fault of our military that we are not winning the war. Who else is on the battlefield from America if it is not our troops?

If it is not the troops at fault then it must be Mr. Bush’s failure. There is no one else to point to of significance in fighting the war in Iraq.

Mr. Bush has not put forth a political initiative in the form of a diplomatic offensive to end the fighting in Iraq and the Iraqi government is not doing well diplomatically either. Thus a troop surge will not help to fill this diplomatic vacuum.

Troops are not re-upping and our National Guard is being systemically reduced in effectiveness. We have more than 3,200 dead and more than 30,000 casualties.

We have 20,000 sailors and airmen acting as military combat troops because of a lack of manpower. We need to surge 30,000 more troops meaning an extension in theater to the present group of soldiers and a need to recruit and train thousands more as well as forcing repeated duty tours in Iraq.

Mr. Bush admits that the training of the new recruits will be less than it should be. We are allowing 42 year olds to enlist and we are admitting people who should be going to jail for felonies to be forgiven their crimes in order to permit enlistment. U.S. military desertion rates are also a small but telling factor.

Military equipment stockpiles are falling and the troops need to be brought home, placed into garrison, their ranks cleaned out, then they must be re-trained and re-equipped.

We are in dire need of another 20,000 troops in the Afghanistan War and we lack them. Troops coming from Iraq need to be redeployed to Afghanistan.

The deaths of American soldiers are the direct responsibility of G. W, Bush and the effort of the U.S. Congress is to act to cut the death toll.

Thus Democrats would surely be supporting the troops by withdrawing them from Iraq while clearly not supporting the Bush Administration in its desire to continue a mismanaged war effort.

Iraqi Government Impact of U.S Withdrawal

Bush Point: The impact on the duly elected Iraqi government will be fatal and will cause the nation to fail and Iran will benefit.

Truth Elements: The elections that put the present Iraqi government into power are not repeatable today.

Millions of Iraqis have fled from Iraq and they represent the intelligentsia and the human capital needed to create a functioning nation.

One could not hold a free election in Iraq today; the carnage is too great and the consequences of queuing up to vote constitute great vulnerability to human bombings. Even the green-zone is not safe or immune from attack. There is no safe place in Iraq today contrary to John McCain’s claim.

It is impossible to convene the duly elected Iraqi government. Many have fled the country while others are perpetually “away due to travel demands.”

It is not possible to convene a quorum and the Iraqi government barely exists in reality.

They cannot legislate, they have not finished their Constitution, the oil reform and allocation plan cannot be ratified and sectarian religious civil war rules the land with the government powerless to stop it and implicated in much of the killing.

The Iraq police and Army appear to be highly ineffective. Being an Iraqi Army soldier or policeman is a way to get a paycheck at a time when there are few jobs to be had. It has little to do with loyalty to the government. Infiltration of these forces by the insurgents is also obvious making them highly ineffective. Some Army units are reporting to behave okay in combat but the forces are still considered unreliable in the aggregate.

Therefore the Iraqi government has already failed. The only remotely stable part of Iraq is found in the Kurd region.

As for Iran -- Iran does not have the assets to occupy and hold Iraq; believe it or not, they lack refined gasoline.

World and U.S. Petroleum Impact:

Bush Point: The U.S. economy will tumble if oil goes over $3 per gallon.

Truth Elements: It looks like we will see $3 per gallon gas pricing through most of the summer of 2007, regardless of the Iraqi war.

Current oil inventory is in excess and there is no shortage of crude oil.

The driving factor of gasoline availability is U.S. refinery capacity. Mr. Bush has done nothing to resolve our refinery problems.

Oil is a world commodity bought on a world spot market. Mr. Bush has devalued the dollar by more than 30% thus forcing the price of oil upwards, in dollar terms, by 30%.

What is sold is not Iraq oil, or Iranian oil -- just oil – U.S. oil and Venezuelan oil, and British oil, are also in the mix.

There is either enough oil to meet world demand or there isn’t – it’s binary. When there isn’t enough oil then supplier nations seek to increase pumping capacity and thereby gain more foreign exchange as wealth. When there is a surplus of oil then they cut back on pumping and they raise the price of oil to cover the lower amount of oil being sold. They seek to make more currency or at least to hold the amounts garnered constant. This is what a cartel called OPEC does every day of the week - adjust output and influence pricing. The spot price of oil is updated real-time based on actual trading. The futures price of oil is based upon forecasts.

When oil goes over $3 a gallon it is true that the U.S. economy suffers. But...

That $3 gasoline then fuels a demand for alternative energy supplies and we see more wind turbines, solar, ethanol, and other solutions suddenly become fiscally sound investments.

That scares the hell out of OPEC and other oil suppliers and it causes them to lower the price of oil to keep such investments from happening.

With each high price spike more and more alternative energy sources are being developed across North America. Wind farms and Ethanol in the mid-west are cases in point -- they are invested in whenever we see gasoline costs rise above a threshold of $2.60 per gallon.

State government increases in gasoline taxes add to the perception of a need to increase investment in more alternative energy.

Democrats are committed to keeping alternative energy developing across America thus forcing down the amount of oil needed to be imported. Thus the price of oil will moderate as a result and thousands of new American jobs will be created as the alternative energy industry fuels demand for energy restructuring of homes, farms, and businesses.

The present GOP economy is in trouble with inflation.

It is not oil that is driving American economic health it is inflation caused by GOP mismanagement of the economy plus multiple currency devaluations done by the Bush Administration, plus an increase in the trade and public debt deficits. Mr. Bush has permitted several devaluations of the dollar on his watch and the result is catching up with us as prices must rise to pay for goods, commodities, and services purchased on the world market and costing more since the dollar is worth less as measured by foreign exchange rates. It is the Iraqi war that is fueling dollar devaluation and a rising trade deficit. Oil pricing, by contrast, is manageable.

Mid-east Domino Theory

Bush Point: Leaving the mid-East will expose Israel to increased war.

Truth Elements: Israel and Palestine seem to be trying very hard these days to bring Hezbollah under control and to forge a peace agreement.

They are doing it on their own and the Bush Administration has not been a solution provider.

As Donald Trump has bluntly stated “Condoleeza Rice is a failed head of the State Department as was Colin Powell before her.” Mr. Trump says that Rice should be fired. We do not dispute Mr. Trump’s judgment on this matter.

Conclusions

When we integrate these truth elements it is difficult to see how we would be hurt any worse by leaving Iraq than by staying there and indeed it is obvious that we would be better off giving up the Bush debacle as a poor program for our present and our future.

Jingles, slogans, taunts, slurs, political propaganda, war with Congress -- none of these can replace a win in Iraq and yet a win is not on the drawing boards.

Therefore it is time to get disentangled in the mid-east and to set a proper course for America’s future.