Where did Hatch lose? In the heart of the cities

11/13/2006

Vital votes show up in Hutchinson’s column, likely dashed Democrat’s hopes

by Tim Nelson and Mary Jo Sylwester
Pioneer Press

If you want to know where Mike Hatch lost the gubernatorial election, go to the Macalester-Groveland neighborhood in St. Paul. While a Democratic wave was rising across the nation and Minnesota, it left the DFL standard-bearer high and dry here.

A Pioneer Press analysis of election returns found a telling combination along Summit and Randolph avenues: Hatch won handily, but got less voter support there than any other statewide Democratic contender in the last two elections — even relative unknowns such as state auditor victor Rebecca Otto.

At the same time, Independence Party contender Peter Hutchinson had a remarkable finish in the neighborhood, taking as much as 15 percent of the vote in some precincts. It wasn’t much in the grand scheme of a 2 million-vote election, but the shift struck the geographic heart of the DFL.

Think of it this way: To win statewide office, Democrats need a combined margin of victory of at least 150,000 votes in Hennepin and Ramsey counties. John Kerry did it in 2004. U.S. Senate winner Amy Klobuchar and most of the DFL ticket did it this year.

But for Hatch, who performed comparably with other DFLers in much of the rest of state, the Twin Cities landslide didn’t go all the way down the mountain. It stopped more than 60,000 votes short. And it looks like it stopped at Hutchinson.

Consider these examples:

In Dakota County, generally along the Minnesota River, Hatch lost 30 precincts that John Kerry won in 2004, or about 20 percent of the county. Hatch came in 2,926 votes behind Pawlenty at those polling places, and Hutchinson got 2,721 votes in the same precincts.

In Ramsey County, Hutchinson’s vote amounted to more than three-quarters of the deficit by which Hatch fell short of the rest of this year’s DFL ticket.

In St. Paul, Hutchinson got about one of every eight votes in 24 precincts, nearly a quarter of the city. As a comparison, third-party gubernatorial contender Tim Penny didn’t reach that level in a single St. Paul precinct in 2002.

In some strongly DFL precincts in Hennepin County, Hatch’s margin of victory was as much as 24 percent smaller than the 2004 Democratic presidential candidate’s win. Republican Tim Pawlenty, however, wasn’t the beneficiary: He gained no more than 3 percent on George Bush’s 2004 total in any of those areas.

Independence Party officials cite exit polling to argue the statewide picture is different, that Hutchinson cut into the Republican base elsewhere — to Hatch’s benefit.

To a degree, that did happen: In polling places in Minnesota where at least 50 votes were cast, Hatch won 99 precincts that had gone for George Bush in 2004, with a margin of victory there of 2,600 votes. Hutchinson got about 2,500 votes there this year.

But the effect was much more pronounced in the other direction. Amid an otherwise Democratic landslide last week, Pawlenty won 141 precincts that went for John Kerry in 2004, chalking up an 8,700-vote victory at those polling places — more than three times the boost Hatch got from crossovers. And Hutchinson was a significant presence, picking up 11,000 votes amid those Republican victories.

“I’d love to be the great killer in this deal, but I’m not,” Hutchinson said last week, after hearing of the numbers. “We just didn’t do that well,” he added, citing his 6 percent statewide showing.

Hutchinson supporters contend Hatch himself was responsible: that his combative campaigning in the final week drove away the DFLers’ political base. “You didn’t see these problems with Rebecca Otto or Mark Ritchie,” said the IP’s 5th Congressional District chairman, Peter Thoraldson. He also contends Pawlenty couldn’t have swum against the political tide like he did without picking up Democratic support himself.

Republican Party officials point out that in Dakota County, where Hatch lagged significantly behind other DFLers and John Kerry’s 2004 finish, the attorney general was on the governor’s home turf: Pawlenty grew up in South St. Paul, served on the Eagan City Council and represented the Eagan area in the Legislature.

“It’s his base,” said Ben Golnik, Republican Party executive director.

But political scientist Chris Gilbert, a professor at Gustavus Adolphus College in St. Peter, said it’s hard to dispute Hutchinson’s role in last week’s election.

“The DFL needs to gain in the cities,” Gilbert said in an e-mail last week. “Hatch obviously did not do that.” And while he didn’t think it entirely appropriate to compare the attorney general to other DFL contenders on the ballot, Gilbert termed the Hutchinson vote “critical to Hatch’s fate.”

Whatever their ultimate cause, the DFL defections in the Twin Cities were a surprise to political observers, including St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman.

“I’m stunned that there’s that big a fall-off,” said Coleman, a DFLer, after looking at county-by-county numbers, the comparison to the 2004 election and returns from St. Paul in Tuesday’s election. “It’s clear that you have to do the basics, you have to shore up your base.”

In St. Paul, that’s places like the 3rd Ward. There’s still a smattering of orange Independence Party leaf bags — ersatz lawn signs — sitting around Precinct 13, in the area bounded by Grand, St. Clair and Snelling avenues and Ayd Mill Road. About 1,500 people voted for John Kerry here in 2004, and 1,300 for Amy Klobuchar, but just 1,000 for Hatch.

Mike and Mary Ellen Sarafolean, out for a walk last week, both voted a straight DFL ticket except for Hutchinson. “His message was right on, he was upbeat,” Mike said. “I didn’t feel like I was wasting my vote, and he talked about the issues. He said that we needed to reform health care, because without that, we couldn’t fix anything else.”

St. Paul schoolteacher Francie Anthony, walking her dog along Goodrich Avenue two days after the election, sounded a similar note. “It’s these candidates that do themselves in,” she said. “Look at [Roger] Moe. Look at Hatch. They’re fighting; they’re not at all diplomatic. I think Hatch was well qualified, but I think his leadership style left a lot to be desired. … And I voted for him.”