Which way now: Cooperation or gridlock?

11/13/2006

Dane Smith,
Star Tribune
Last update: November 12, 2006 – 6:50 AM

Gov. Tim Pawlenty is calling the results of last week’s election in Minnesota earth-shifting. Get ready for the aftershocks.

Major DFL gains mean Minnesotans can expect a more moderate-to-liberal agenda—especially on budget and tax issues—when the 2007 Legislature convenes in January.

“The next four years,” Pawlenty said, “will be very different from the last four years.”

A statewide smoking ban in bars and restaurants, increased health-care coverage, more money for roads and transit—all are new possibilities. Maybe higher taxes, too.

Pawlenty is no longer bound by his first-term pledge to oppose new taxes. But even if he resists, the shift in power created by the election is so dramatic that now DFLers need only to win over a few Republicans to override a veto. A gas-tax increase, which Pawlenty vetoed earlier this year, may be the first tax hike to result.

But major reversals on cultural or social issues appear less likely. DFLers probably lack the muscle to repeal abortion restrictions and a law allowing easier access to handgun permits that were enacted under Pawlenty and a GOP House majority.

Meanwhile, a sweeping makeover in leadership is underway. All four House and Senate caucuses will have new leaders. And for the first time since the early 1970s, both of the Senate and House leaders—Senate Majority Leader Larry Pogemiller and House Speaker-designate Margaret Anderson Kelliher—are from Minneapolis.

But that change won’t necessarily translate into favoritism for Minneapolis or the state’s other large cities. All the new DFL seats were won in the suburbs or in outstate areas, and DFLers are likely to put a premium on satisfying those new members’ interests, to help ensure their reelection. Seats in Minneapolis and St. Paul are essentially safe for the DFL.

“The message out of the election is about balance and working on issues people care about, no matter whether they live east or west or north or south,” Kelliher said, adding that DFLers will be wary of pushing legislation that may be viewed as too liberal or excessively expensive.

Here’s a look at the prospects for action on key economic and social issues.

Abortion

Abortion-rights supporters now count 65 members of the 134 members in the Minnesota House as solidly in their corner, and they claim majorities in both chambers for support of family planning services. In the last two legislative sessions, significant laws supported by abortion opponents have been passed, including requiring educational information to be supplied to a woman at least 24 hours before an abortion. There appears to be little appetite for revisiting abortion laws on the books, partly because a Pawlenty veto would be nearly impossible to override. But more funding for family planning services, always difficult terrain, could find new footing.

Early childhood

More than baby steps are likely to be coming for expansion of pre-kindergarten programs. A coalition of education groups, business leaders and liberals is behind a plan to spend as much as $200 million more per year to address a chronic problem: About 50 percent of public school kindergartners each year are deemed not ready for school. Pawlenty has given his blessing to some steps in this direction.

Education

Pawlenty and DFLers agree that public schools and colleges need more money. He wants to pump more money into basic school funding as long as there are strings attached: measures to show that schools are getting results and toughening their curriculums, for instance. DFLers might want to pile much more money than Pawlenty into basic school funding. Both sides want to brake rising college costs. But many DFLers don’t like Pawlenty’s emphasis on waiving tuition for top-performing students. They’d rather see tuition assistance spread out among all students, or aimed at the neediest.

Health care

Everyone is eager to do something on this issue. Pawlenty has already expressed interest in joining with DFLers on their long-sought expansion of MinnesotaCare, the state’s subsidized health insurance for the working class. This would focus on covering the state’s 68,000 uninsured children. Also up for discussion: measures to bring relief to small businesses struggling with health-insurance costs for their workers.

Smoking ban

Proposals for a statewide ban on smoking in public places and workplaces got significant attention in the Legislature last year. But it still foundered amid opposition from restaurants and bar owners and concerns from both DFL and Republican rural legislators, who regard the idea as a direct attack on mom-and-pop bars and hometown VFWs. The proposal is sure to resurface, and supporters believe it has its best chance ever of passing. Pawlenty has said he would sign such a bill if it reaches his desk.

Taxes

With former Senate Taxes Chairman Larry Pogemiller now at the helm of the Senate as majority leader, expect a lot of action on this front. Pogemiller has decried the steady rise of property taxes during Pawlenty’s first term, even proposing income-tax increases as a means of stemming that rise. With the prospect of a $1 billion revenue surplus, property-tax relief will be in line for a share of the excess. Pogemiller may also pursue another pet proposal of his: a further tightening of tax-law language that allows some businesses to shelter their overseas operations from state taxes.

Transportation

DFL legislators will again push to increase the gasoline tax to improve transportation, arguing that the constitutional amendment passed last week doesn’t provide enough money to do it. The amendment dedicates all vehicle sales taxes to roads and transit—eventually $300 million a year. But transportation advocates say the state has fallen short of what it needs by $1.5 billion annually. In 2005, 10 GOP House members broke with their leaders and joined Democrats in passing a 10-cents-per-gallon tax increase. Gov. Tim Pawlenty vetoed the initiative. But the large DFL majorities in the House and Senate next year improve odds that the legislature would vote to override another veto.