Whoa There Bolton – Just Hold On There

03/06/2006

Paul Munnis

Where Iran is concerned, let’s just calm down. They do not have atomic weapons yet. They are running into their share of problems getting the practical bomb science worked out. They are not selling nukes to anyone nor do they have any to sell. They are just as likely to land missiles on top of Palestine as on Israel once they get all of this atomic stuff and thus wipe out Hamas instead of Israel. Also they need to test a weapon and when they do its damned hard to hide it. Iran is just not there yet. Knowing all of that we can isolate their supply of critical science nd engineering equipment and slow them down even more.

My point is that we have time. Time is capital in politics and especially good capital in the world of foreign diplomacy.

We don’t need Bolton running around like Rambo and urging the UN to “Take Out,” Iran. We are far away from the end of the line in terms of shaping alternatives to War with Iran. We have not reached that point where war is a last resort - so just calm down here. A good start would be for Congress to recall Bolton and fire him.

We have about three to five years grace period and as Condoleeza Rice has said, turning Iran in to the UN does not mean that we have to strike Iran the very next day. She is right, we don’t have to do that; America can take control of the time line and use it to our advantage. Speaking of Condi – is she in charge or just a puppet on a string? Bolton seems to be taking his orders from Chaney and not Condi. This is another sign of desperation in the White House as the walls start to close in on the Bushies.

Also let’s look at Iran’s threat to withhold oil from market. The fact they would even make such a threat is a sign of increasing despair that can be harnessed for diplomatic resolution. They know that will cause sanctions and will cut off their source of foreign revenue to feed their people. That in turn will lead to regime change in Iran.

Probably it will also lead to regime change in America where Bush is seeing his approval ratings down around his ankles and much of his popularity plunge is over mismanagement of the mid-east and oil. Make no mistake—Bush is on a measured mile to either govern properly or to get out of Washington.

Those two issues combined (rising oil prices and foreign policy mismanagement) are taking down the GOP. So there is a lot of posturing going on here as the Bushies get ready to send in the B1 bombers. The GOP and the Bush Administration are facing a cliff that they must soon jump off if we don’t allow them to have a new mandate for governing America for the next three years. They think that Iran is their new mandate and we need to check them and rein them in. Let them deal with the messes that they have already created before they are allowed to create any more chaos; and besides, America simply cannot afford any more new military adventures. Our deficit is way too high for that.

We have seen how fast things can change in politics. Look at Yassar Arafat. One day cussing Israel and the next day he was dead. How about Sharon? One day he is bossing around Generals and the next day he is turned into a vegetable from a stroke. For Abbas – one day he is negotiating with Sharon and the next day he is forming a new government. For a mid-east politician three years is a virtual lifetime, especially in today’s political climate. So just slow it down. Bush and Bolton seem to be trying to create a world of virtual chaos and they need their sails trimmed and to be run close hauled to the wind.

And where is Congress? Busy talking with their lawyers I suspect. We are told that Abramoff is singing loud and clear and that re-election fox holes are being dug all over America by Congressmen facing political calamity. The GOP leadership has a problem much like Romans had. Should they throw Bush to the lions and thus save their own skin or support Bush and face political ignomy for the next 20 years?

So just put the brakes on. The UN does not have to vote right now over Iran. Let the Security Council drag its heels somewhat. Let’s get America back to work on the current migraine headaches that we have not yet solved: Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestine, Israel, and the new members of the nuclear club all await our collective brilliance. Do we really need to bog down in a war with Iran right now? I don’t think so. The U.S. has the power to allow things to wait awhile with Iran while we get the rest of the mess cleaned up. Russia and China both seem to want a slow down too. Makes sense to me.

The UN is about to get a new leader. Iran may also end up with a new leader soon too. So might America for that matter. The young people in Iran are not so happy with the current Iranian leader and he is playing the nuclear card as a way to create a surge of nationalism in an attempt to consolidate his political power. Why not just bottle him up and see if he still has a job six months from now?

Major changes are shaping up in Israel and Palestine that will really impact the Iranian political posture too. Hamas may be fired and Palestine may need to run another election if they can’t form a government. Many other things can happen including intervention by God.

As for Bush, he should go brush his teeth and just hush up. He needs to look carefully at early retirement as an option.