Will setbacks dent Pawlenty’s 2006 chances?

12/26/2005

They don’t help, but observers see no major harm in the tobacco fee reversal or biodiesel problems.

Patricia Lopez,
Star Tribune
Last update: December 24, 2005 at 6:29 PM

When Gov. Tim Pawlenty checks under his Christmas tree today, he might be satisfied with just a little good news.

In the last week, he’s been handed embarrassing setbacks by a district judge who shot down his tobacco “health impact fee” and by truckers who forced a short-term waiver of his pet biodiesel initiative because of fuel filter foul-ups.

Critics say that while such things do no major harm to Pawlenty’s reelection chances in 2006, they don’t help his pursuit of a second term.

“People are going to be asking, ‘would you want this man as the CEO of your company?’ “ said Senate Majority Leader Dean Johnson, DFL-Willmar.

“This is not large damage to him, but it does make people question his ability to manage,” Johnson said.

Pawlenty spokesman Brian McClung said Pawlenty’s bold style puts him at greater risk for setbacks but also bears out a vision and maverick streak that will resonate with Minnesotans.

Since being elected, McClung said, Pawlenty has taken on “Big Pharma,” through his relentless push for importation of cheaper Canadian drugs; “Big Oil,” through his biodiesel and ethanol initiatives, and “Big Tobacco,” by boosting cigarette prices to a level that lowers smoking rates.

“Most governors would be reluctant to take on one of those cartels, let alone all three,” McClung said. “He’s a maverick. This is a governor who doesn’t shy away from a big battle with powerful opponents when he’s doing something he thinks is right.”

Risks, rewards in moderation

Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota, said the Tuesday court decision that struck down the $400 million tobacco fee is particularly problematic for Pawlenty.

Even if the decision is appealed, he said, “it puts the spotlight on a question the governor would rather not have people focused on: Did he go back on his word not to raise taxes?”

David Strom, president of the Taxpayers League and a leading conservative activist, compared Pawlenty to comic movie star Eddie Murphy. “Eddie Murphy is one of the funniest comedians in the world, but he needs a good director to save him from his own excesses. Pawlenty is kind of like that. If he sticks to his core beliefs, he’s among the best politicians the state has ever seen.”

But lately, Strom said, Pawlenty has been “overthinking, overstrategizing and overtriangulating, and that’s getting him into trouble.”

The best course of action on the tobacco fee, Strom said, “would be to drop it.” Instead of fighting the court’s decision, he said, “they can take it as a blessing in disguise.”

The turnaround in the state’s fiscal fortunes --a $1 billion surplus is now projected—means that Pawlenty could drop the onerous 75-cent-per-pack fee on smokers and end the rhetorical quagmire he got himself into on “taxes versus fees,” Strom said.

As it stands, he said, Pawlenty is “doubling down his bet on an issue that’s been overall a political loser for him.”

But Sarah Janecek, publisher of Politics in Minnesota and a Republican, said Pawlenty’s decisions have served him well.

“Toeing the Taxpayer League line completely would have been toxic for him,” Janecek said. “By having a few high-profile disagreements with conservatives, Pawlenty becomes the moderate, which is always a lovely place to be in a general election.”

Highlighting renewable fuels and lower-priced prescription drugs have paid political dividends for Pawlenty, Janecek said. “And he won’t be damaged by the health impact fee,” she said. “Voters have bigger fish to fry.”

But there is one line, Janecek said, that Pawlenty simply cannot cross.

“It is completely impossible for this governor to raise taxes this year,” she said. Even if the state loses the tobacco fee on appeal, “if he signed a tax increase, that would be the end of his career,” she said. “There’s a chance he might be denied the GOP endorsement if he did that.”

McClung said that with any politician who pushes the envelope as much as Pawlenty does, there are sure to be a few bumps in the road. However, he said, “we think the governor’s policies have resulted in a very strong economy.”